During the COP29 climate conference held in Baku, Azerbaijan, the complex negotiations surrounding the fossil fuel transition encountered significant hurdles, particularly due to disagreements from oil-rich countries such as Saudi Arabia. The discussions aimed to establish concrete measures for cutting emissions and advancing global commitments to decrease dependence on fossil fuels.
Initially, the talks appeared to stall, with delegates failing to agree on key mitigation strategies over the weekend. Following this impasse, the COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev stepped in to restore momentum to the negotiations. His leadership proved pivotal as he sought to revive discussions and encourage countries to reach consensus on the urgently needed measures to combat climate change.
“COP29 cannot and will not be silent on mitigation. We will address the matter [in] every direction,” Babayev asserted during the COP plenary meeting. His statement underscored the importance of maintaining dialogue and pushing forward with climate initiatives, emphasizing the necessity of action to adhere to commitments made at previous conferences.
Notably, the discussions this year faced challenges stemming from the absence of a pledge made at COP28 to transition away from fossil fuels. This commitment was conspicuously omitted from other pivotal outcomes earlier this year, including decisions made at COP16, which occurred last month.
Former COP president and WWF climate and energy lead, Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, emphasized the role of financing as key to unlocking progress on transitions from fossil fuel reliance. He pointed out the urgency for developed nations to financially support developing countries, which often struggle to finance their energy transitions. “After a faltering first week, parties now have a second chance to work together and build consensus around the climate solutions we need to reduce emissions quickly,” he stated, highlighting the importance of coming together for quick action.
The Brink of Collapse
The atmosphere turned tense late Saturday night when it became clear to delegates gathering after the first week of COP29’s discussions led to a deadlock over how to effectively move forward with emission cuts. While many representatives were ready to celebrate, some nations were frustrated with the lack of substantial progress.
A coalition composed of developed nations, small island states, and least developed countries (LDCs) expressed strong desires to solidify the previous year's commitment to transitioning away from fossil fuels. They aimed to develop the so-called Mitigation Work Programme, which was established at COP26 with the objective to amplify global efforts to reduce emissions.
This coalition sought the establishment of specific emission reduction targets—including pledges to phase out fossil fuels entirely. They argued for limiting new investment to coal projects and preventing new coal-fired power plants from being built.
“We are ready to push for numerical targets,” remarked one delegate, aiming to curb methane emissions, address deforestation, and improve renewable energy infrastructure. Yet their push faced staunch opposition.
Saudi Arabian representatives voiced concerns about these proposals, stating they threatened the flexibility needed for developing nations, stating they should not be subjected to new goals or targets. Nations like Bolivia, along with representatives from China and India, voiced solidarity with this perspective, advocating for non-prescriptive conclusions to the talks.
With divisions evident among the nations, co-chairs of the negotiations recommended postponing talks for six months, pushing discussions to the mid-year climate events hosted in Bonn, Germany. This suggestion faced rejection from various nations who felt urgent dialog was necessary, leading to continued discussions until the conclusion of the conference.
“It’s unfortunate to see some parties consistently blocking progress,” noted Australia’s representative, who was part of the Umbrella Group—an alliance of developed nations. They expressed support for maintaining focus on achieving measurable outcomes.
Presidency Steps Up
On Monday morning, COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev took decisive action. He called for ministers from Norway and South Africa to assist him by reaching out to countries and gathering their input on the way forward. His proactive approach aimed to quell rising frustrations and rejuvenate the negotiations.
During Monday’s plenary session, multiple countries expressed frustrations about the diminishing status of mitigation discussions. Some delegates, such as those representing small island states, indicated they would not leave Baku without securing firm outcomes on emissions reductions, amplifying the stakes of the conversations. “The fact discussions are stalled is extremely concerning for our group,” said one negotiator from Samoa.
Switzerland’s representative highlighted the general agreement on the need for clear messaging, emphasizing the correlation between decisions made about mitigation during COP29 and future national climate plans, which are set to be submitted early next year. “It’s not acceptable to be here, the very body meant to reduce emissions without having clarity moving forward,” the Swiss negotiator pointed out.
The European Union also contributed to the discussions, with its climate commissioner announcing the need for strong signals from Baku to inform next steps. “We must follow on our historic decision to truly transition away from fossil fuels,” they declared, lifting spirits among supporters of the emission-cutting agenda.
Meanwhile, the EU separately noted its ambition to publish its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) which adheres to the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold of warming, detailing their progress and commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
It was emphasized by EU representatives how countries, including the UAE, Brazil, and the UK, showing interest with preliminary emission reduction goals before and during COP29 were promising. “We need to maintain consistency and keep pace with reductions,” they insisted, urging collaboration across borders to achieve collective climate goals.
Despite the turmoil experienced during the week, the resilience shown by numerous countries indicates a willingness to push through the challenges and seek effective resolutions. With parties striving to find common ground, the consequences of these negotiations will have significant ramifications for global climate policies moving forward.
