At COP29, the global climate summit currently taking place in Baku, Azerbaijan, the atmosphere is charged with anticipation and tension. Climate advocates are holding their breath, caught between hopes for real progress and the stark realities of heightened carbon emissions worldwide. With the planet now on track to surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming compared to pre-industrial levels, leaders are feeling the pressure to act decisively.
Ernest Hemingway once described bankruptcy as happening gradually, then suddenly. The climate crisis could follow the same pattern, warns Ed Hawkins, professor of climate science at the University of Reading. "It took over 100 years for the globe to warm the first 0.3°C, but we’ve seen 1°C of warming just within the last 60 years," he explains, hinting at the accelerating pace of this alarming trend.
The stakes are high and the challenges even higher. Current levels of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil-fuel-fired power plants, transportation, and other sources signal record-breaking heating, threatening drastic changes to the Earth's ecosystem. These include possible disasters such as the collapse of the Amazon rainforest, which could drastically alter our global climate.
The fear of such tipping points drove the signatories of the 2015 Paris Agreement to aim for controlling temperature rises to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Sadly, experts now warn we may have missed our chance. "Some believe humanity has left cutting emissions too late to avert significant global heating," reports The Guardian.
At COP29, as countries convene, the overwhelming theme is the urgent need to transition away from fossil fuels — the primary culprit fueling climate change. Pep Canadell, chief research scientist at CSIRO Environment, emphasizes this, noting the continual rise of CO2 emissions, which are expected to hit 37.4 billion tonnes by 2024. While coal emissions remain nearly stagnant, natural gas and oil emissions continue to climb. Several nations are witnessing substantial increases, with aviation's resurgence post-pandemic amplifying these emissions.
Despite these bleak findings, there are glimmers of hope. The growth rate of fossil CO2 emissions has slowed compared to previous years; they increased by 1.1% last year and only around 0.8% this year. Promisingly, countries like Norway, New Zealand, and South Korea show declining emissions, driven largely by increasing reliance on renewable energy sources.
The world's greatest emitter, China, is also shifting gears. It installed more solar capacity last year than the U.S. has over its entire history. This is part of China's broader goal to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060, as stated in its 14th Five-Year Plan. Given its significant investments and advancements, many experts argue China may soon lead clean energy initiatives globally.
Yet, challenges remain. While exhibiting potential, the country still heavily depends on coal, as evidenced by its record high coal production this year. Climate experts caution against complacency, urging faster and more aggressive implementation of renewable energy strategies.
Adding to the complexity, COP29 attendees are sharply debating how to handle climate finance, with calls for developed nations, including China, to contribute more significantly. Yao Zhe, policy analyst at Greenpeace East Asia, noted, "Now is China’s opportunity to step up and fill the leadership gap left by the U.S., which is retreating from its climate commitments under President Trump."
Part of the discord lies within historical responsibilities for climate damages. Traditionally, industrialized nations emitted the bulk of greenhouse gases, yet developing nations are now contributing significantly to global emissions. The question arises: how do we balance these pressures? Should China, identified as both the leading emitter and increasingly as a developed economy, shoulder its fair share of climate financing? Arguments abound, with some calling for voluntary contributions from countries like China, which have maintained self-identification as developing nations.
Indeed, the situation presents signs of contradiction. Even as China emerges as a leader in renewable investments — pouring $273 billion last year alone, significantly outpacing Europe — there remains skepticism about its overall climate progress. Recent reports place China near the bottom of the Climate Change Performance Index, highlighting disparities between its vast renewable capacity and coal reliance.
The continuing dialogue at COP29 is focused on achieving the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance, aimed at assisting developing countries and addressing global warming. Experts estimate these nations will require about $1 trillion annually by the decade’s end to mitigate the damage caused by extreme weather and to limit emissions effectively.
Notably, China’s progressive stance is matched with obligations to assist other nations. Discussions center on whether it will acknowledge its dual role as both the leading emitter and the global renewable leader, stepping up with substantial climate finance support to those most affected by climate change.
Meanwhile, the urgency mounts to stabilize the climate. The large networks of ocean currents, known as the great ocean conveyor belt, are strained under the weight of humanity’s emissions. The Arctic’s melting ice is pouring freshwater where it should not be, risking the integrity of these currents. Laurie Menviel and Gabriel Pontes from UNSW Sydney warn, "The current could be 30% weaker by 2040; that's 20 years earlier than initially projected," emphasizing the dwindling time to act decisively.
Despite the signs of mounting urgency, slowing emissions growth offers glimmers of hope. Norway, South Korea, and New Zealand are seeing their carbon footprints diminish thanks to proactive policies focused on enhancing electric vehicle (EV) usage and renewable energy. With global electric car registrations on the rise, it’s hoped more countries will adopt similar proactive measures.
Nevertheless, international negotiations and comprehensive climate policy continue to be marred by governmental distractions and the influence of corporate lobbyists. Even supposedly strong democracies are not immune, as noted by Christina Toenshoff from Leiden University, who remarked how fossil fuel influence has reached legislative drafting levels within climate policy discussions. This complicates the already tough negotiations taking place at COP29.
Countries beckon one another to focus on the core issue, which remains how historically rich nations must compensate developing nations for the climate burdens they didn’t create. The consensus is growing—transitioning to nearly carbon-free economies necessitates drastic behavioral shifts, particularly from the wealthiest consumption-heavy societies.
The COP29 summit, now poised at the intersection of ambition and incrementality, crackles with different factions attempting to steer the world toward more sustainable paths. Still, the formula seems all too familiar: build more sustainable energy, converge on justice for those most impacted, and find common ground, bending the will of the powerful for the common good.
One thing is crystal clear; the commitment shown at COP29 will determine whether humanity can break free from the looming specters of climate catastrophes. The time to act was yesterday; today’s actions must pave the path for accountability and change.
