At the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which kicked off on November 13, 2024, global leaders and negotiators have converged on Baku, Azerbaijan, to address the ever-growing climate crisis. They gather at a time when projections for global carbon emissions paint a grim picture, signaling the pressing need for intensified efforts to combat climate change.
According to the latest findings from the Global Carbon Project, fossil fuel emissions are poised to reach record levels, estimating 37.4 billion metric tons for 2024, which marks an increase of 0.8% compared to the previous year. When factoring land-use changes, such as deforestation, the total emission could soar to around 41.6 billion metric tons. This relentless rise threatens the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Indeed, experts warn there's now a 50% chance global temperatures could exceed this threshold within the next six years if current emissions trends continue.
The backdrop of COP29 is filled with urgency as delegates and world leaders face accusations of failing to embrace the necessary political resolve. A significant part of the assembly’s tension arises from the absence of key leaders from countries responsible for the majority of emissions. High-profile figures such as U.S. President Joe Biden, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are all noticeably absent, raising eyebrows about the seriousness of global climate action.
“It’s symptomatic of the lack of political will to act. There’s no sense of urgency,” stated Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, underscoring the frustrations felt by scientists and environmentalists who see the clock ticking on climate action.
Adding to the discourse, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev described fossil fuels as “a gift from God” to nations like his, where oil production has deep historical roots and remains prevalent. His remarks hit home amid global calls to phase out fossil fuel reliance, prompting UN Secretary-General António Guterres to counter with the assertion, “doubling down on fossil fuels is absurd.”
This year’s conference discussions are expected to be complex, particularly concerning climate finance—funds pledged by developed countries to assist developing nations. These nations argue they require substantial financial support to adapt to climate impact and transition to renewable energy sources. They demand clarity and commitment, frustratingly stating the current proposals are vague. The Global South countries have been vocal about their needs, frequently summarizing their stance around the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance, which aims to establish concrete financial targets.
The negotiations bear witness to the reconcilement of climate science with political will; the growing divide between developed and developing countries over the nature and amount of future climate finance is glaring. Past climate agreements seem insufficient as rich nations scramble to meet their current pledges. The importance of transparency, consistent commitments, and accountability looms large over the conference.
Emerging reports show the aviation and shipping sectors are also contributing to emission spikes, with increases of 7.8% projected for this year. Despite resilience from renewable energy adoption, which has seen investments double compared to fossil fuels, the continuing rise of global temperatures and fossil fuel subsidies (quadrupled from 2021 to 2022) indicate insufficient progress. Coal remains the primary culprit, contributing to 41% of total emissions, and is seeing slight increases amid strong global demand.
Competing narratives are seen among scientists and consulting firms about emission peaks. While some analysts are pessimistic about immediate future emissions, predicting they may continue to rise unchecked, others, such as those from consultancy DNV, express more optimism. They expect emissions to peak soon, potentially by 2024, hinged on advances across renewable technologies like solar, wind, and electric vehicles.
Yet amid these uncertainties, the calls for action are increasingly passionate. Leaders must not only address fossil fuel timelines but also effectively phase out subsidies linked to them, a task challenging yet imperative. The rise of extreme weather events this year—from catastrophic floods to devastating wildfires—is fueling demands for action, as these changes vividly highlight the stakes involved.
It’s evident the road forward is steeped with challenges—from securing ample financial commitments to addressing the political inertia hindering rapid climate strategies. Nonetheless, advocates from across the globe remain hopeful and mobilized. They seek to push for policies reflecting urgency through innovative solutions and collaborations.
With COP29’s dialogues expected to stretch across several days, the global community holds its breath, awaiting the verdicts and commitments stemming from this pivotal climate assembly. Can world leaders reconcile competing interests and deliver on pledges made years ago? Time will only tell, but the stakes have never been higher.
