With the COP29 Climate Summit set to commence on November 11, 2024, Baku, Azerbaijan, is gearing up to host nearly 200 countries. This year's summit arrives with heightened expectations for decisive action on climate finance, particularly focusing on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) aimed at raising funds to combat climate change.
The stakes are high as this year's negotiations will address financial benchmarks expected to reach trillions of dollars annually. This is viewed as especially urgent for developing nations amid increasing pressures to adapt to the impacts of climate change. At the center of the discussions will be India, which plans to advocate strongly for accountability from wealthier nations on their climate finance commitments.
While Prime Minister Narendra Modi's absence raises eyebrows, with his responsibilities likely shifting to Union Minister of State for Environment, Kirti Vardhan Singh leading the Indian delegation, India's key talking points are anticipated to remain firm. The country aims to drive conversations around protecting vulnerable communities and ensuring equitable energy transitions, focusing on resilience and adaptation to climate impacts.
Dr. Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), voiced concerns about the accountability of developed nations, noting, "COP29 must be about accountability," following what he saw as disappointments at COP28.
On the global stage, many leaders are expected to commend the commitments made during the previous climate talks but will be urged to go beyond mere declarations. A key focus will be strengthening the finance mechanisms to support developing nations, enabling them to meet the objectives outlined within the Paris Agreement. The NCQG will serve as the backbone of these negotiations, emphasizing the integral role of adequate funding to manage the risks posed by climate change.
Kenya's Climate Change Envoy Ali Mohamed echoed the sentiment for urgency, insisting on the need for practical financing solutions. He stated, "The final goal agreed in Baku should not worsen our debt situation," as many nations are already at financial limits due to climatic pressures.
The upcoming summit also carries the weight of significant global events influencing its outcomes. With the United States potentially shifting back to pro-fossil policies under speculative re-elections, COP29 struggles against the backdrop of renewable energy advocacy. Former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres remains optimistic, asserting the global decarbonization movement will persist, but it’s evident the path forward is riddled with challenges.
Despite global pressures, India remains committed to addressing climate finance issues without neglecting its development needs. Notably, this year, India will not have its own pavilion at COP29—as seen in previous years—which aligns with its restrained, yet focused diplomatic engagement.
Azerbaijan, primarily known for its oil exports, stands as both host and reminder of the challenges the world faces amid calls for greater climate action. Concerns over fossil fuel dependency and economic reliance on energy markets will be amplified by the summit, highlighting the tensions between maintaining economic growth through fossil fuels and transitioning to sustainable practices.
A significant issue will be dedicated discussions around loss and damage, as emphasized by Dr. Manish Kumar Shrivastava of TERI, advocating for financial mechanisms to alleviate the burden on developing countries. A clear path to address how these nations will be supported is deemed necessary to reinforce trust and positive relations at the negotiations.
Moving beyond discussions of just emissions and financial commitments, experts are seeking tangible action, emphasizing the importance of establishing transparent carbon markets and encouraging investment in sustainable practices. Initiatives like transparent carbon frameworks and governance reforms remain central to the narrative and tactical responses expected post-summit.
Of note, the anticipated release of the Global Carbon Budget on November 13 will shed light on current emissions trends and provide necessary data to bolster climate pledges moving forward.
Further illustrating the weight of COP29, the event's leadership integrity recently came under scrutiny with revelations about Azerbaijani officials allegedly engaging with fossil fuel companies to facilitate deals during the summit. The allegations have intensified calls for the exclusion of fossil fuel lobbyists from COP meetings, challenging the impartiality of the proceedings.
Participants at the conference will also grapple with the actions of key leaders who are absent, including U.S. President Joe Biden and Europe's chief negotiators, who are typically at the forefront of climate discussions. Their absence could significantly influence the commitments made at COP29, as discussions are often swayed by major economic players.
The overarching theme at COP29 will remain focused on financial equity, accountability, and the urgent need for developed nations to meet their pledges, alongside vibrant debates on the commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. There’s optimism about the potential of multilateral agreements providing the necessary framework for future actions and financing, yet skepticism persists about whether these ambitions will be met.
Dr. Vibha Dhawan from TERI emphasized the need for clarity about the operationalization of Article 6.4 discussions during COP29, particularly surrounding nature-based solutions. Such discussions around established frameworks could pave the way for progress on financial benefits directed toward conservation, especially for communities directly affected by climate change.
Overall, as the world converges on Baku for COP29, the weight of expectation is palpable. With hopes for clear outcomes on climate finance and accountability, the summit holds promise as either a turning point or another adding layer of unfulfilled commitments. This juxtaposition of possibilities adds pressure as participants ready themselves for negotiations and dialogues aimed at reshaping the future of climate cooperation.
