Controversy erupted surrounding the recent presidential election in Belarus, where long-time leader Alexander Lukashenko claimed victory with 86.8% of the vote. The election, held on January 28, 2025, faced fierce criticism both domestically and internationally, labeled by the European Platform for Democratic Elections (EPDE) as a sham.
Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus since 1994, sought yet another term amid allegations of political repression and human rights violations. The election process unfolded without credible oversight, as the Lukashenko administration declined to invite the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) to observe the proceedings.
According to the EPDE, over 90 observers accredited by the Belarusian Central Election Commission had ties to authoritarian regimes or faced criminal investigations back home. EPDE’s Łukasz Kondraciuk stated, “Election monitoring is a fundamental pillar of democracy, but Lukashenka’s Belarus has turned it ...into a farce.” This sentiment captures the widespread skepticism among opposition leaders and international observers alike.
Interestingly, some observers, like former Belgian senator Frank Creyelman, praised the atmosphere of the event, stating, “Everything is taking place in a very cheerful, pleasant, festive atmosphere.” This ironic observation starkly contrasts with the reality many Belarusians face, including over 1,200 political prisoners still incarcerated. Among them is Ales Bialiatski, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate.
The backdrop of the election was marked by protests held by the opposition, led by Tsikhanouskaya, on January 26, 2025, where demonstrators showcased white-red-white flags symbolizing dissent against Lukashenko’s regime. The exiled opposition, struggling to connect with Belarusians, encouraged voters to select the option allowing them to reject all candidates, reflecting disillusionment with the electoral process.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who rose to prominence during the 2020 elections, echoed significant concerns about the state of democracy. She urged for the release of all political prisoners, saying, “We need to stop repressions, we need to release all prisoners and maybe then we will talk to you.” Her words underline the challenges facing the opposition as they try to navigate the oppressive political climate.
This election occurs against the backdrop of intense scrutiny from the international community. European leaders, including the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaia Kallas, condemned the process, citing severe restrictions on human rights and political participation. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry announced it would not recognize the election results, amplifying the chorus of disapproval.
Political analysts suggest Lukashenko’s grip on power may be tenuous as he faces the dual pressures of maintaining relations with Russia and addressing growing discontent. His administration allowed the use of Belarus as a launchpad for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, resulting in additional Western sanctions due to human rights abuses and support for Moscow’s military operations.
The release of political prisoners, though limited, offers some sign of easing repression, with reports of Lukashenko granting humanitarian pardons to around 250 individuals since July 2024. This development, viewed skeptically by the opposition, has led to questions about Lukashenko's true intentions. Critics argue it is merely a strategy to curry favor with the West rather than genuine reform.
Analysts predict if tensions surrounding Ukraine ease, Lukashenko may try to recalibrate relations with the West. Academics like Tatsiana Chulitskaya suggest, “If the war ends, there will be certain windows of opportunity for Lukashenko to ... balance between Russia and the West.” Such maneuvering encapsulates the precarious positions dictatorial regimes face as international dynamics shift.
This election reinforces the notion of Belarus as Europe's last dictatorship, continuing to grapple with its identity and governance model amid mounting pressure for democratic reform. The suppression of opposition voices and attempts to legitimize his regime highlight Lukashenko's enduring yet fragile hold on power.
With political discontent simmering and no clear path to dissent, many Belarusians now prioritize survival over political change, as indicated by Ivan Kravtsov of the opposition council. “For most of the people, politics is not top of the agenda. Survival is top of the agenda,” he noted, reflecting the grim reality shaped by repression.
The immediate future of Belarus remains uncertain; as international condemnation grows and calls for accountability within the country intensify, the actions taken within the next few months will prove pivotal. The legacy of this election, alongside the continued plight of political prisoners, paints a stark picture of Belarusian society under Lukashenko’s extended rule. Will change ever come to pass, or is this merely another chapter in the long-standing story of political oppression?