With the clock ticking down to midnight on September 30, 2025, the United States faces the real possibility of a partial government shutdown. The funding deadline has become a high-stakes battleground in Washington, as President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers square off against Democrats in a tense negotiation that has shown little sign of progress. Both sides are digging in, each blaming the other for the impasse and warning of the consequences if the government’s lights go dark.
At the heart of the standoff is a disagreement over how to keep the government funded into late November. Republicans, led by Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), are advocating for a seven-week “clean” continuing resolution (CR)—a stopgap measure that would maintain current funding levels and avoid contentious policy changes. Democrats, meanwhile, are holding out for protections to Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies and a reversal of recent GOP-driven Medicaid cuts. The Democratic proposal also includes a permanent extension of expiring ACA subsidies and a restoration of rescission cuts, provisions Republicans have flatly rejected.
As the deadline looms, the rhetoric has grown sharper. Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) warned that President Trump could use his discretionary power to determine which government services are deemed essential during a shutdown—a move that could, in his words, make things especially painful for states represented by Democrats. "I’d be much more worried if I were a blue state. The president has a lot of discretionary power on what he declares is … essential," Marshall told reporters, according to Nexstar Media Inc. He added, "We do not want a shutdown," but the implication was clear: if it happens, Republicans intend to use every tool at their disposal.
This strategy is not without precedent. Republicans recall the 2013 shutdown, when then-President Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) closed off popular attractions like the National Mall’s World War II Memorial and the Smithsonian museums, moves that drew public ire and put the GOP on the defensive. Now, with Trump at the helm, Republicans believe the tables have turned. As one Senate GOP aide put it, "Once you enter a shutdown, the A-block is, more times than not, the effect of the shutdown rather than what the party is trying to get out of it."
Trump himself injected fresh uncertainty into the process on September 23, abruptly canceling a scheduled meeting with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) after reviewing Democratic demands. On his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump accused Democrats of "threatening to shut down the Government of the United States" over issues such as "free healthcare" for migrants and "transgender surgery" for minors. He quipped, "There are consequences to losing Elections but, based on their letter to me, the Democrats haven’t figured that out yet." The White House did not comment on whether Trump would meet with lawmakers before the deadline, though Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters, "Discussions are ongoing with both Republican and Democratic members of Capitol Hill."
Democrats, for their part, remain largely united but face internal questions about their strategy. Some within the party worry that, as the party that believes in the positive power of government, they are at a disadvantage in a shutdown scenario. A former senior Democratic aide told Nexstar Media, "I don’t believe Democrats are truly prepared for what they’re walking into, because there’s no exit strategy. When you’re the party who believes in government and, more specifically, the good that government can do through funding, you’re already at a disadvantage." The aide added, "His [Trump’s] microphone is a lot bigger than Democrats’ right now. … That is my concern."
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries sought to shift blame back onto Republicans, writing in a letter to colleagues, "Donald Trump has now chickened out and cancelled the meeting. Clearly, GOP extremists want to shut down the government because they are unwilling to address the Republican healthcare crisis that is devastating America." He also criticized House Republicans for canceling votes ahead of the deadline, calling it "the height of irresponsibility and further evidence that Republicans are determined to shut the government down."
As both sides trade accusations, Americans are left wondering what a shutdown would mean for their daily lives. According to the Burlington Free Press, the effects would be widespread but uneven. Social Security and Medicare benefits would continue, as would mail delivery, since the U.S. Postal Service is not affected by a shutdown. However, many federal agencies and programs that rely on annual funding would pause, and hundreds of thousands of federal workers deemed nonessential would be furloughed without pay.
Travelers could face headaches, too. Airport security screeners and air traffic controllers would remain on the job but without pay, raising the risk of longer wait times and flight delays if the shutdown drags on. National parks and monuments could close, with rangers furloughed and facilities shuttered—unless states step in to fund operations, as happened during the 2018-2019 shutdown.
Other essential services would continue, albeit with disruptions. Veterans would keep receiving benefits and medical care, and programs like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) would proceed with minor interruptions. Active-duty military personnel would stay on the job, but about half of the Pentagon’s 800,000 civilian employees could face furloughs. Federal law enforcement agencies—including the FBI, DEA, Secret Service, and Coast Guard—would continue operating, as would Border Patrol and immigration enforcement agents, though all would work without pay.
Medicare and Medicaid benefits would continue as long as the shutdown lasts less than three months, but as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) warned in a September 13 statement, "not slash Medicaid and throw 15 million people off their health insurance, resulting in over 50,000 deaths a year; not raise health care premiums by 75%, on average, for over 20 million Americans due to cuts to the Affordable Care Act; not, at a time of unprecedented income and wealth inequality, give the richest people in America a trillion dollars in tax breaks." Sanders’ comments underscore the high stakes for millions of Americans who rely on federal health benefits.
Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.) echoed those concerns in a September 19 statement, saying, "Millions of Americans are still in danger of losing their healthcare as a result of Republican cuts. It’s time for the President and Speaker Johnson to listen to the needs of the American people."
With just days left before the deadline, the path forward remains uncertain. Senate Majority Leader Thune is expected to bring the "clean" CR up for a vote early in the week, possibly holding repeated votes or considering targeted reopenings and military pay measures. But unless both parties can bridge the gap, a partial government shutdown starting October 1 appears more likely by the hour.
For now, Americans can only watch as their leaders play a high-stakes game of political poker—one with real consequences for federal workers, families, and the everyday functioning of the nation.