The Washington Commanders have made headlines by signing defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw to a staggering three-year, $45 million contract. This deal represents a bold move for a team looking to fortify its defense, especially under new management that aims to compete quickly in the league.
Kinlaw, who previously played for the New York Jets, is coming off what many considered a breakout season in which he recorded a career-high 4.5 sacks. His performance earned him a respectable top-30 pass-rush grade, signaling a potential revival of his career after a rough four-year stint with the San Francisco 49ers. However, the big question remains: is this investment truly justified?
Critics have been vocal about the Commanders’ latest acquisition. Pro Football Focus (PFF) has labeled Kinlaw as one of the most overpaid free agents of the offseason. The criticism stems from the fact that, despite his recent improvement, Kinlaw has never attained a top-tier performance rating in any of his seasons. Having finished last season as PFF’s 79th-ranked interior defender, he now finds himself among the highest-paid defensive tackles in the league based on this new contract.
On March 19, 2025, the team officially announced Kinlaw’s signing, designed to fill the void left by Jonathan Allen. Following his release from the Commanders, Allen signed a three-year, $51 million deal with the Minnesota Vikings, averaging $17 million per-year, a contract that raises eyebrows when compared to Kinlaw's deal. Critics question whether the Commanders made the right choice, especially considering that Allen ranked higher in various performance metrics, even during a down season.
There’s also speculation about the circumstances surrounding Kinlaw’s signing. Washington’s new general manager, Adam Peters, appears to have a personal commitment to Kinlaw, having known him from their time with the 49ers. While this relationship may explain the contract, many argue that the financial motivations do not align with Kinlaw's performance history. After all, the 49ers hesitated at extending him, indicating their lack of confidence in his lengthy injury past and overall contributions.
The landscape of the signing has highlighted broader trends in this year’s free agency, where several teams opened their wallets for position upgrades. This frenzy has led to many big deals being handed out early in the free agency window, particularly at key defensive positions like tackle, safety, and cornerback.
While fans generally celebrate these major signings, history suggests that not all of these players live up to the hefty contracts they receive, leaving franchises in difficult positions for years to come. Kinlaw’s future performance will be a focal point for the Commanders, who overachieved last year yet still needed to solidify a winning roster.
Kinlaw now faces the dual challenge of performing under the weight of expectations with his hometown team while justifying this significant investment. The Commanders hope that his revival story continues, but they remain guarded about the potential for the deal to backfire.
According to PFF, Kinlaw’s signing is a gamble that could either pay off big, putting him at the forefront of a rejuvenated defensive line, or spell trouble if he cannot deliver consistent performances. This precarious balance encapsulates the gamble that the Commanders are taking on Kinlaw, embodying the risk-reward nature of free agency.
As the NFL continues to evolve, teams are increasingly faced with the challenge of navigating the waters of free-agent signings without succumbing to the lure of big names and big contracts. For now, Kinlaw has the chance to silence critics and prove his doubters wrong by making a substantial impact both on his team and in his community, potentially changing the narrative surrounding his career.
