Coffee lovers across the globe are feeling the heat—quite literally and financially—as coffee prices surged sharply higher on September 8, 2025. According to data from Barchart.com, both December arabica coffee and November ICE robusta coffee futures saw notable jumps, with arabica up +9.65 (+2.58%) and robusta up +119 (+2.76%). The surge pushed arabica futures close to $3.9 per pound, a one-week high, fueled by a perfect storm of weather woes, global trade tensions, and tightening inventories.
The heart of the issue? Excessive dryness in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing region, received no rain during the week ending September 6. This lack of rainfall comes at a critical time, just before the flowering period for coffee trees, which is essential for next year’s crop yield. As a result, crop concerns have intensified, sending prices skyward. "Excessive dryness in Brazil's coffee-growing regions has sparked crop concerns ahead of the critical flowering period for coffee trees and is boosting coffee prices," Barchart reported.
Adding to the anxiety, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, cut its 2025 arabica coffee crop estimate by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags, down from a May forecast of 37.0 million. Conab also trimmed its total 2025 coffee production estimate by 0.9% to 55.2 million bags. These reductions, announced just days before the price spike, have only fueled further speculation and volatility in the market.
But Brazil isn’t the only country facing challenges. Vietnam, the second-largest coffee producer globally, is also grappling with the effects of drought. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association slashed its 2024/25 production estimate to 26.5 million bags in March, down from 28 million bags in December. For the 2023/24 crop year, Vietnamese production dropped by a staggering 20% year-over-year to 1.472 million metric tons, the smallest crop in four years. The country’s 2024 coffee exports also fell by 17.1% year-over-year to 1.35 million metric tons, according to the Vietnam General Statistics Office. However, there was a slight silver lining: from January to August 2025, Vietnam’s coffee exports actually increased by 7.8% year-over-year to 1.141 million metric tons.
These production woes are being felt in global trade flows. Brazil’s July 2025 unroasted coffee exports fell 20.4% year-over-year to 161,000 metric tons, according to Brazil’s Trade Ministry. Exporter group Cecafe reported an even steeper drop: July green coffee exports fell 28% year-over-year to 2.4 million bags, with arabica exports down 21% and robusta exports plunging 49%. From January to July, total coffee shipments fell 21% to 22.2 million bags. The numbers paint a stark picture—less coffee is leaving Brazil’s ports, tightening global supply and propping up prices.
Inventory data tells a similar story. ICE-monitored arabica inventories dropped to a 1.25-year low of 686,863 bags on September 3, rebounding only slightly to 692,766 bags by September 5. Robusta inventories also hit a 1.5-month low of 6,552 lots on August 28, barely recovering to 6,644 lots by September 8. As stocks dwindle, the market’s nerves are on edge.
But if weather and supply weren’t enough, geopolitics has thrown another wrench into the works. President Trump’s proposed 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports has already started to reshape the market, even before a final ruling. American buyers, wary of the steep tariffs, are voiding new contracts for Brazilian beans—no small matter, given that Brazil supplies about a third of all coffee consumed in the US. This has led to tightening US supplies, as roasters scramble to source coffee from other origins like Colombia, despite limited availability. According to Barchart, "US roasters will likely try to source coffee from other origins like Colombia, despite limited availability, while drawing on certified stocks currently at a more than one-year low."
Brazilian farmers, for their part, are holding back exports, hoping the tariff will be reversed. This game of brinkmanship is adding further uncertainty to an already jittery market. The harvest in Brazil is nearly complete—Cooxupe, the country’s largest coffee cooperative, reported 94.9% completion among its members as of August 29, and Safras & Mercado noted that the overall 2025/26 harvest was 99% complete by August 20 (with 100% robusta and 98% arabica picked). Yet, with so many beans staying put, global buyers are left wondering when—and if—supplies will loosen up.
On the global stage, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that world coffee exports in July fell 1.6% year-over-year to 11.6 million bags, and cumulative exports from October to July dropped 0.3% year-over-year to 115.615 million bags. These numbers underscore the tightening grip of supply constraints worldwide.
Despite all these short-term hurdles, there are glimmers of hope for the future. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projected on June 25 that world coffee production in 2025/26 will rise by 2.5% year-over-year to a record 178.68 million bags. This includes a 0.5% increase in Brazil’s output to 65 million bags and a 6.9% jump in Vietnam’s production to a four-year high of 31 million bags. The USDA also forecasts that ending stocks will climb by 4.9% to 22.819 million bags. However, not everyone is convinced the tide will turn so quickly. Coffee trader Volcafe projects a global 2025/26 arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags, even wider than the 5.5 million bag deficit expected for 2024/25—the fifth consecutive year of shortfall.
Market volatility isn’t expected to subside anytime soon. With speculative buying on the rise and traders anxiously awaiting a decision on the US tariff, prices are likely to remain bumpy. Private consultancies have revised down their projections for Brazil’s 2025/26 harvest, citing disappointing yields from the arabica crop. As certified arabica stocks fall and US tariffs loom, the market is bracing for more twists and turns.
So, what does all this mean for your morning cup of joe? In short, it’s getting pricier—and more unpredictable. From the coffee fields of Brazil and Vietnam to the trading floors of New York and London, a complex web of weather, politics, and market forces is shaping the future of one of the world’s most beloved beverages. For now, consumers and traders alike will be watching the skies, the headlines, and the markets, hoping for a break in the clouds—or at least, a break in the prices.
