On May 9, 2025, coffee prices experienced a downward trend across both domestic and global markets, despite a slight increase in Arabica coffee prices on the New York Stock Exchange. The London market reported that the price of Robusta coffee for July delivery was at 5,238 USD per ton, which marked a decrease of 1 USD per ton compared to the previous trading session. Meanwhile, the September futures price for Robusta saw a modest increase of 2 USD per ton, trading at 5,189 USD per ton.
In contrast, Arabica coffee on the New York Stock Exchange for July futures was recorded at 386 cents per pound, reflecting a rise of 1.90 cents compared to May 8, 2025. The September delivery term for Arabica was set at 380.30 cents per pound, which was an increase of 1.60 cents from the previous day.
Domestically, coffee prices saw uniform decreases across various localities, fluctuating between 127,700 to 128,200 VND per kilogram on the same day. Specifically, in Dak Lak, coffee prices were reported at 128,000 VND per kilogram, down by 300 VND from the previous day. In Lam Dong, prices were noted at 127,700 VND per kilogram, also a decrease of 300 VND. Similarly, in Gia Lai, coffee traded at 128,000 VND per kilogram, and in Dak Nong, traders purchased coffee at 128,200 VND per kilogram, both reflecting a 300 VND drop compared to earlier in the morning.
The recent decline in coffee prices can be attributed to a new report from the Brazilian Crop Supply Agency (CONAB), which revealed an upward revision in Brazil's coffee production forecast for the 2025-2026 season. The agency raised its estimate to 55.67 million tons, representing an increase of 2.7% compared to the previous year and nearly 7.5% higher than the initial forecast made in January 2025.
Notably, while the production of Arabica coffee is projected to decrease by 6.6% to 36.98 million bags, the production of Robusta is expected to surge by 27.9%, reaching 18.7 million bags. CONAB attributed this upward adjustment primarily to stable and favorable climatic conditions that have benefitted coffee plants during this critical development phase.
The Robusta harvest in Brazil has already commenced, whereas the Arabica coffee is still in its development stage and is anticipated to be harvested in mid-year. This dynamic has raised concerns among traders and farmers alike regarding the future pricing trends of coffee as the market adjusts to the new supply forecasts.
As the coffee market continues to fluctuate, industry experts are keeping a close watch on global demand and production levels. The interplay between these factors will be crucial in determining how prices evolve in the coming weeks. The anticipated harvests in Brazil are particularly significant, given that the country is one of the largest coffee producers globally.
In summary, the coffee market is currently navigating a complex landscape shaped by production forecasts and market dynamics. The recent adjustments by CONAB are likely to have lasting impacts on pricing strategies for producers and consumers alike. With the harvests underway, stakeholders will be eager to see how these changes influence their operations and the broader market.
