The coalition negotiations in Germany between the Union and the SPD (Social Democrats) have reached a pivotal phase. As the first phase concluded on March 25, 2025, the discussions revealed significant ambitions but also exposed unresolved conflicts. The 16 working groups of CDU (Christian Democrats) and SPD submitted their proposals, yet critical issues, especially around migration and economic policy, remain contentious.
According to reports, on March 22, a draft from the coalition working group on digital issues illuminated the direction Germany's digital policy may take under the new coalition. It emphasized that "digital politics is power politics," aiming for a "digitally sovereign Germany." The emphasis here is on reducing digital dependencies while building resilient digital infrastructures and enhancing domestic value chains for computer chips and raw materials.
However, while the Union and SPD agree on broad goals, they diverge significantly in their approaches. For instance, the Union is keen to centralize data protection oversight at the federal level, a move that SPD representatives are resisting, highlighting the extensive discussions that lay ahead. CDU and CSU (Bavarian sister party) also want to rename the Federal Commissioner for Data Protection, a proposal that has sparked opposition within the SPD ranks.
In a recent appearance, SPD co-leader Lars Klingbeil expressed cautious optimism about the talks, stating, "It's completely normal for there to be some friction in the process." He emphasized the responsibility both parties share in shaping a successful coalition. Yet, as negotiations unfold, there are clear signs of tension. Sections of the draft concerning data policy denote stark disagreements, with SPD pushing for stringent data protection measures against the backdrop of the Union’s inclination towards deregulation.
The first round created a myriad of discussions that could reshape Germany's digital strategy and reflect broader economic ambitions. By focusing on developing artificial intelligence capabilities and de-emphasizing new digital oversight offices, the coalition appears to be moving towards a model that prioritizes economic development over regulation.
Further complicating the negotiations are conflicting viewpoints on migration policy. The Union's proposed changes to asylum seeker regulations—including rejections of asylum requests at German borders—further exemplify the divisive political landscape. The SPD has maintained that any rejections must align with European neighbors' consensus, indicating a potential legal and ethical impasse that risks stalling the negotiations altogether.
At the heart of these discussions is a proposed shift in migration policy described in the exploratory paper: the Union has suggested limiting benefits to Ukrainian refugees, an idea that has prompted outrage and opposition from SPD members who seek to maintain current support levels.
In matters of economic policy, the divisions are just as pronounced. While the Union advocates for reducing corporate taxes, SPD proposals include raising the top income tax rate from 42% to 47% and instituting a wealth tax, creating a potential flashpoint that could derail progress if not carefully managed.
Union Secretary-General Carsten Linnemann lamented the slow pace of negotiations, remarking, "It is critical that we approach the discussions without feeling rushed." This sentiment reflecting strategic caution is evident as the coalition attempts to reconcile divergent viewpoints, especially on economic refreshment and migration control. As the negotiations continue, expectations from both sides are increasingly pinned on reaching a consensus while also navigating the ideological divides that characterize the current political climate.
Even as detailed proposals continue to surface, challenges remain in balancing party priorities while accommodating the broader electorate's concerns. SPD leaders have insisted on maintaining social protections against the Union's more market-centric approach, arguing for measures that ensure equitable economic contributions across classes.
Germany's political landscape is evolving rapidly as the Union and SPD prepare for a complex second phase of negotiations, which are set to involve party leaders from both sides in contentious discussions over unresolved issues. This longer negotiation process will include a tender balancing act of maintaining party integrity while addressing public expectations.
The future of the coalition government thus hinges on the ability of both parties to navigate these disputes without fracturing their unity further. As notable platforms for negotiation are brought to a head, from immigration to data policy, the coalition's push for a cohesive governance strategy will be tested in the weeks to come, shaping Germany's political future.
Looking ahead, CDU leader Friedrich Merz has aimed for coalition agreements to be finalized before Easter, yet setbacks suggest a delay until early to mid-April may be more realistic. The trajectory “post-Easter” has already begun, as the parties prepare for varying outcomes from increasingly contentious negotiations that reflect deeper societal debates about migration and economic equity in contemporary Germany.
As the stakes rise, both parties are poised between prospects for change and the specter of political impasse, echoing the complexities inherent within Germany’s governance structure. In this critical period, the ability of political leaders to constructively navigate their shared responsibilities remains vital for Germany's ongoing vitality.
