Ontario’s provincial elections took place on February 27, 2025, and the Mushkegowuk-James Bay riding witnessed one of the closest races. NDP incumbent Guy Bourgouin emerged with 3,606 votes, accounting for 45.4 percent of the total, whereas his rival, PC candidate Dave Plourde, trailed closely behind with 3,602 votes, representing 45.35 percent. With such a narrow margin of just four votes, the possibility of a recount hangs over the riding as candidates await the official tabulation process, which is scheduled for March 1-3.
Reflecting on the race, Plourde expressed his thoughts to TimminsToday: "I would have much rather had a landslide, obviously. That would make you feel a lotbetter. I do feel good though, knowing the PCs have a majority, which was the intent." Voter interest appears to be on the rise, with 7,943 ballots cast out of 18,755 registered voters, indicating increased participation compared to the previous election where only 39.40 percent turnout was recorded, translating to 7,283 votes.
“Compared to the last election, there were more people who got out and voted...Better than the last election,” Plourde shared, highlighting the spirited climb of voter engagement, especially considering the challenges of winter voting.
According to Ontario’s election regulations, the returning officer has the authority to call for a recount if the difference between the leading candidates is fewer than 25 votes. This is the scenario facing Plourde and Bourgouin as the procedure of recounting ballots, which occurs manually even though electronic systems are utilized for initial count, could be triggered as early as next week following the official results announcement.
"We’re going to wait and see if we’re granted a recount," Plourde added, displaying optimism as he spoke about finding those four elusive votes. "It's just four votes, so it’s not hard to find.' This close race indicates not only the voting dynamics of Mushkegowuk-James Bay but also reflects changing sentiments among the electorate. Plourde believes the narrow margin signifies readiness for change, evident from the voter turnout and engagement, pushing for clearer communication during his campaign.
Plourde emphasized the clean nature of his campaign, stating, "I think we kept the campaign really clean...we didn’t troll people. We just made sure we gave them facts." His team’s strategy focused on informative exchanges rather than responding to negativity or personal attacks on social media, which he found prevalent. He mentioned maintaining civility even when faced with pressures from online trolls by addressing concerns head-on with voters.
The recount process may take place under specific guidelines set out by the Ontario Election Act. Typically, within four days following the announcement of the official results, candidates can appeal for judicial review based on specific criteria—including incorrect ballot counting and proximity of the leading candidates' votes. The recount would then happen within ten days, ensuring thoroughness and transparency.
Interestingly, Mushkegowuk-James Bay isn’t alone with such tight election results. The Mississauga-Erin Mills riding has reported another close call with the PC candidate leading by just 20 votes over the Liberal candidate. This indicates broader electoral trends throughout Ontario, where races are tight across various ridings, arousing intense interest among political observers.
Recounts are relatively rare occurrences in Ontario elections, with only 17 official recounts conducted since 1975. Notably, two of those recounts occurred in Northern Ontario—though the rarity speaks to the significance of the very close race action now taking place. It will be important to watch how elections across the province reshape the political conversation moving forward.
For Plourde, the possibility of recount is not only about finding four votes but is also about gaining insights on what voters are truly signaling through their choices. He referenced the clean nature of his campaign and expressed hope for clearer outcomes as the recount process gets underway, positioning himself as someone dedicated to respectful dialogue. “We worked till the last, last person... I just couldn’t convince enough,” he lamented, indicating the challenge of broader electoral competition.
Looking across the larger picture of the electoral map, the outcome of this election, alongside close races, suggests shifting political sentiments, nurturing speculation on how they could redefine power dynamics within Ontario politics. The results of the recount—if it takes place—could signal not just the fate of one candidate but also reflect the pulse of the electorate as they churn toward future electoral choices.