The ecological balance and agricultural productivity of northeastern China are under severe threat from the long-term invasion and spread of Asteraceae plants, which have disrupted the region’s biodiversity and ecosystem stability. Three species of these plants—Ambrosia artemisiifolia, Ambrosia trifida, and Erigeron canadensis—have been categorized as Class 1 malignant invasive species, posing serious challenges to local agriculture and health.
Research utilizing the MaxEnt model, which employs occurrence data to predict species distributions, examined the current climate's influence on the distribution patterns of these invasive species. A total of 36 predictor variables were selected to assess how climate variables impact their dispersal, and future climate projections were mapped to understand potential distribution changes for the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 under three different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585).
The findings indicate the MaxEnt model successfully predicted current distributions, achieving an average area under the curve (AUC) of 0.918—a remarkable indicator of the model's accuracy. It reveals the current concentrations of these invasive species primarily located in southern parts of northeastern China. Notably, with the expected shifts due to climate change, distribution centroids for these plants are projected to gradually move southwest, leading to increased areas labeled as highly suitable for their growth.
The trend analysis suggests rising invasive trends for these species, particularly within regions expected to morph under various climate models. According to studies, climate factors such as precipitation and temperature significantly drive their spread. The identified suitable habitats for these species encapsulate approximately 7.37 × 104 km² of highly suitable area, with additional expanses of moderate and low suitability making up 17.67 × 104 km² and 35.58 × 104 km², respectively.
Historically, these Asteraceae species have been prolific since their introduction from North America, with records of hawkweed and other invasive varieties dating back to the 1930s. The fast reinstatement of these species is acknowledged to stem from their favorable biology; for example, A. artemisiifolia's pollen can trigger substantial allergic reactions, posing additional health risks as their populations grow. The ecological concerns extend beyond the direct impacts on biodiversity as agriculture—especially staples such as wheat and barley—could suffer significantly due to these invasive organisms.
Strategy and policy-making are imperative to mitigate these challenges. On December 20, 2022, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China issued the “List of Key Management of Alien Species,” effective January 1, 2023, underscoring the need for proactive measures against such threats. The analysis emphasizes the necessity for targeted management approaches to curtail the spread of these plants, acknowledging the region's susceptibility to the invasions.
Utilizing future climate data derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report and projections based on three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) reveals significant habitat expansion projections for these invasive plants over the coming decades. During the 2050s and 2070s, areas under cultivation for these species are expected to rise, positioning them effectively for continued expansion.
For the SSP126 shared socioeconomic scenario, the distribution center of these invasive species is predicted to move southwestward, covering considerable distances based on climatic scenarios analyzed. Similar projection trends for the SSP245 and SSP585 pathways show marked displacement of suitable habitats, reiteratively demonstrating the capacity of these species to adapt to changing climates.
Overall, the research significantly aids our comprehension of the Asteraceae dynamics under climate change scenarios, laying the groundwork for enhancing management strategies and sustainable solutions to combat the extensive impacts of these invasive species. Enhancing regulation around agriculture and port trade may serve as additional bulwarks against future invasions, and continual ecological monitoring remains key to safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystem stability.