On January 8, 2025, the city of Los Angeles was engulfed by devastating wildfires, including the catastrophic Palisades Fire and Eaton Fire, burning over 50,000 acres and claiming at least 28 lives. These fires were reported to have caused economic damages estimated at up to $31 billion, making it the costliest wildfire event recorded to date. According to a new rapid analysis released by World Weather Attribution (WWA), human-caused climate change significantly contributed to the disastrous conditions leading up to these fires.
The analysis, conducted by 32 researchers specializing in climate and wildfire science from institutions across the U.S. and Europe, found these hot, dry, and windy conditions were about 35% more likely and 6% more intense due to the 1.3 degrees Celsius of global warming resulting from the burning of fossil fuels. Historically, such extreme fire conditions would have been much rarer, occurring roughly once every 49 years prior to industrial times.
Chad Thackeray, a climate scientist at UCLA, stated, “What we experienced was not just another wildfire season; it was exacerbated by climate-enabled trends.” The study revealed fire-prone conditions can be expected to recur approximately once every 17 years under the current climate, but if emissions continue unchecked and global warming reaches 2.6 degrees Celsius by 2100, these conditions may increase another 35%. This year’s fairly low rainfall also played a role, as the region received only 0.31 inches from May to December 2024, contributing to the dry conditions and extensive fuel available for wildfires.
Indeed, the research highlights how California's fire season dynamics are changing due to the increased overlap of dryer conditions and the Santa Ana winds, which typically peak during the fall and winter months. The report notes this overlap now sees roughly 23 additional dry days each year due to climate change. John Abatzoglou, climatologist at UC Merced, remarked, “This perfect storm of climate change, extended dry seasons, and extreme weather makes California more susceptible to catastrophic wildfires.”
Despite significant rains over the past weekend, providing about 0.5 to 1.5 inches, it may not be enough to end the fire season, as climate patterns suggest future dry conditions could arise swiftly. Recent rains were welcome, yet they also exacerbated the risk of mudslides across fire-affected regions, illustrating the complex aftermath of these natural disasters.
According to the WWA analysis, the increasing likelihood of low rainfall occurrences—about 2.4 times greater now than before industrialization—poses additional threats to wildfire control. Experts predict this trend is only likely to amplify if aggressive climate mitigation strategies are not implemented. “Without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, California will continue to experience more frequent and intense wildfires,” stressed Clair Barnes, statistician at Imperial College London and part of the WWA team.
The two wildfires from January 2025 are significant not only for the devastation they caused but also because they stand as stark reminders of California's increasingly volatile climate. The Palisades Fire is poised to be the worst insurance disaster from wildfires, surpassing even the notorious Camp Fire of 2018, which previously held the title with $20 billion of insured losses. Insurers now face unprecedented liabilities geographically and economically, with estimates showing insured losses for the Palisades Fire alone may reach $20-$25 billion.
Looking to the future, climate models suggest global warming may fuel even drier conditions and more intense wildfires, coupled with reduced precipitation from seasonal patterns. This vulnerable situation is heightened by the state’s extraordinarily volatile hydroclimate, which has officials on alert for future fire seasons.
It’s clear, as encapsulated by the findings, climate change is not icy statistics removed from human experience; rather, it breathes life—or devastation—into the wildfires plaguing California. “The message is clear,” Thackeray concluded, “Acting on climate change is no longer simply beneficial; it’s imperative to prevent future catastrophes.” Certainly, as climate change continues to evolve, it promises to keep the stakes high for California's ecosystems and its inhabitants—if the patterns seen today persist, more seasons of destruction may lie within reach.