The race for the next leader of the Conservative Party heats up as four candidates emerge, each vying to charm the party members and the wider public amid the backdrop of the recent Conservative Party Conference held at the International Convention Centre in Birmingham. Among the candidates are James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat, each presenting their case for why they should be the successor to Rishi Sunak, whose government faced significant scrutiny after the conservative party’s losses during recent elections.
According to the latest polls, James Cleverly appears to be leading the pack. A recent survey conducted by BMG Research indicated he has the backing of 19% of Conservative voters, giving him the edge over Kemi Badenoch, who trails with 15%, and Robert Jenrick, who follows closely behind at 13%. Tom Tugendhat sits at 9%. Interestingly, when considering the wider public perspective, Cleverly also shines with 11% support compared to Badenoch's 9%.
Polling data has shown mixed feelings among voters, with 44% of the general public indicating no strong preference for who should become the next Conservative leader. This sentiment is echoed among Conservative party voters, where 29% express indifference toward the candidates. Such disinterest reflects the present unease within the party as its leaders strive to solidify their Image before the public.
While Cleverly enjoys recognition with 63% of respondents having heard of him, Badenoch trails by only ten percentage points, with 53% of the public recognizing her name. Comparatively, around 49% and 48% of the public are aware of Jenrick and Tugendhat, respectively. Pollster Oliver White highlights Cleverly's potential appeal to disillusioned Conservative voters, noting the importance of candidate recognition as they try to rebuild trust within the party post-Boris Johnson’s tumultuous tenure.
The Conservative leadership race is set to narrow down, with votes happening this week among MPs, leading up to the selection of two candidates who will then be voted on by the wider party membership. The decisive ballots and the announcement of the new leader will take place on November 4.
The candidates each utilized the recent party conference as a platform to engage with Tory members and present their respective pitches. Cleverly’s speech drew praise, with him portraying himself as optimistic, stating, “We need more ‘yes we can’, both from our party and from this country.” He emphasized the importance of forward-thinking and collaboration, rallying members to envision a revitalized Conservative party.
Meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch has drawn attention to her ambitious plans for the Conservative Party’s future, positioning herself as the voice of rejuvenation. Badenoch has articulated her thoughts on the party’s identity crisis, criticizing its recent trends. She stated, “We deserved to lose because the past decade saw us twist and turn in the wind, unsure of who we were.” Her candidacy aims to steer the party back toward strong conservative principles.
On the other end of the spectrum, Robert Jenrick presents himself as the 'Midlands man', aiming to connect with voters through his regional roots. The Newark MP stressed during his speech, “It’s great to be home. I’m a Midlands man. I grew up just down the road in Wolverhampton.” His pledge centers around significant changes related to immigration, promising stringent measures to curb illegal immigration, emphasizing his goal to secure the UK’s borders by potentially diverging from European human rights mandates.
Tom Tugendhat, known for his military background, asserted his leadership credentials, arguing for foundational change within the party. He remarked, “We can only fix the problem if we diagnose the cause and it starts, as every Conservative knows, with our economy.” Tugendhat believes consolidative approaches should form the core of the Conservatives’ renewed agenda.
The Conservative Party faces the challenge of redefining its identity and reconnecting with its base, especially as reflected through recent election results. Despite the buzz around potential candidates, the lack of public enthusiasm raises questions about the impact the new leadership will have moving forward and whether they’ll garner sufficient support both within the party and the public domain.
Polling shows Kemi Badenoch remains particularly popular, especially among party grassroots, where she is consistently viewed favorably. With endorsements from prominent conservatives like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, she embodies the fight for traditional conservative values. Yet, the ability of any of these candidates to unite the party and reclaim the registered voter base remains to be seen.
The leadership race not only embodies individual aspirations for the role but also signals the future of the Conservative Party—one grappling with its legacy and future strategies. With less than four weeks until the party announces its next leader, every move counts as these candidates navigate treacherous political waters brimming with varying supporter sentiments and expectations. How each will overcome the hurdles of uniting the party’s fractured base before November will play out significantly on the political stage.
