In a recent poll conducted by Opinia24 for RMF FM, the results indicate a significant shift in the political landscape of Poland as parliamentary elections approach. If the elections were held on Sunday, April 13, 2025, the Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska) would emerge victorious with 33% of the vote. This marks a slight decrease from the previous month's support of 34%, but still positions them favorably ahead of their rivals.
Following closely is the ruling party, Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS), which would secure 28% of the votes, an increase from 26.3% in the last survey. Meanwhile, the far-right party Konfederacja, which has seen a notable decline in support, would finish third with 16% of respondents indicating their preference for this group.
The poll, which took place from April 7 to April 9, 2025, surveyed a representative sample of 1,000 Polish residents using computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI). This methodology ensures a broad and accurate reflection of the electorate's sentiments.
Despite Konfederacja maintaining its position on the podium, the party has experienced a significant drop in support, particularly among younger voters aged 18-29. In March, this demographic showed 54% support for Konfederacja, but that number has plummeted by 25 percentage points to just 29% in the latest poll. This decline raises questions about the party's appeal and strategy moving forward.
Additionally, support for Konfederacja among male voters has also decreased from 31% to 23%. However, the party's standing among female voters remains relatively stable, with 12% support in March and a slight dip to 10% in April.
In fourth place is the coalition known as Trzecia Droga, which would receive 7.5% of the vote. Unfortunately for them, this result means they would not qualify for a seat in the Sejm due to the 8% electoral threshold set for coalitions. This is a notable change from their previous result of 6.7% in March, indicating a slight improvement.
Other parties also vying for votes include Nowa Lewica, which is projected to receive 5.6% of the vote, and Partia Razem, which stands at 3.2%. A small fraction of respondents, 0.9%, indicated support for another party, while 4.8% were undecided, answering "I don't know, it's hard to say."
The polling data suggests a growing engagement among Polish voters, with 63% of those surveyed expressing their intention to participate in the elections. This figure reflects an increasing interest in the political process and the importance of these upcoming elections.
As the political landscape evolves, the Civic Coalition’s lead and the challenges faced by Konfederacja could significantly influence the strategies of all parties involved. With the elections approaching, the dynamics between these parties will be crucial in shaping Poland's future.
In conclusion, the Opinia24 poll highlights the shifting allegiances within Polish politics as parties prepare for the parliamentary elections. The Civic Coalition's slight lead, alongside the challenges faced by Konfederacja, sets the stage for an intriguing electoral battle ahead.
