Christmas Eve will bring more than just the joy of the season this year, as NASA warns of the approach of asteroid 2024 XN1, the size of a ten-story building, zipping through space at approximately 14,743 miles per hour. This massive space rock is set to pass Earth at a distance of 4.48 million miles.
Slated for its closest approach at 2:56 am GMT on December 24, 2024, 2024 XN1 was first detected by NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) just 12 days prior, on December 12. While this event might sound alarming, experts assure us there’s no cause for concern—this will be a safe “near miss” by astronomical standards.
According to Jess Lee, astronomer at the Royal Greenwich Observatory, "It will be very far away, around 18 times farther away from the Earth than the Moon is, and so with this predicted path won’t come close enough to hit the Earth." NASA classifies near-Earth objects (NEOs) based on their proximity to our planet, with 4.6 million miles deemed relatively close. Despite the significant distance, the sheer size of 2024 XN1, estimated to be between 95 and 230 feet, raises eyebrows as gripping reminders of the asteroid impacts of the past.
To put things in perspective, if this asteroid were on a collision course with Earth, scientists estimate it could release energy equivalent to 12 million tonnes of TNT, flattening approximately 700 square miles upon impact. Lee drew comparisons, noting, "If you’d like to compare it to a previous asteroid impact, the Tunguska Event... involved an asteroid which was roughly similar size to this one." The Tunguska Event, which occurred over Siberia, released immense energy, toppling over 80 million trees—reminding us of the potential devastation such celestial bodies can wreak.
While 2024 XN1 won't be visible even to amateur astronomers due to its distance, astronomers stress the importance of monitoring NEOs. NASA utilizes advanced technology to accurately predict the orbits of these asteroids, utilizing observations collected over years—even decades—to understand what their future holds. Each new observation fine-tunes predictions, making it increasingly possible to foresee potential future encounters.
This festive flyby highlights the urgency for vigilance against NEOs, as numerous space rocks constantly pass close to our planet. Following 2024 XN1’s pass, the asteroid won’t return until January 2031, when it will skim Earth at 3.1 million miles. A particularly notable future visit will occur on Christmas Day, 2106, when it will come even closer at 2.11 million miles.
Looking to the immediate future, there’s more cosmic action: on Christmas day, another asteroid, referred to as 2021 BA2, will make its closest pass, about 1.71 million miles away—but again with no risk of collision.
Such instances highlight how frequently the Earth interacts with space rocks, reminding us of the thin veil between safety and catastrophe. With close passes becoming somewhat of the norm, agencies like NASA and ESA are stepping up their surveillance of NEOs, ensuring we don’t fall victim to the threats posed by the cosmos.
While the holiday season tends to be filled with cheer, the upcoming flyby of 2024 XN1 serves as both reminder and reassurance—our planet remains safe, and space agencies are poised and ready to keep it so. Even as we marvel at the wonders of the universe, the promises of Yuletide cheer can remain intact, free from worries of giant asteroids overhead.
