At COP29, the global climate summit taking place currently in Baku, the spotlight is on China. With the world anxiously monitoring the climate finance negotiations, concerns are growing about China’s responses to climate action and its potential to lead amid challenging dynamics. Will China step up its commitments as the United States appears poised to retreat from its role as a climate leader following the election of Donald Trump and his declared intent to withdraw from the Paris Agreement?
This question cuts to the heart of the argument over the need for comprehensive climate action. Observers and experts are calling for China to set bolder emissions cut targets and take on more responsibility for climate finance, the funds needed to help developing nations cope with the impacts of climate change.
According to recent discussions, key goals at COP29 include formulating the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG). Leading economists project developing nations will require about $1 trillion annually by the end of the decade to reduce emissions and counter brutal weather extremes. Historically, developed countries have contributed to these funds, but figures from the U.S., Europe, and some developing nations encourage China to participate as well. Although classified as a developing country by the UN, China is now the world’s largest carbon emitter and the second-largest economy, raising questions about fairness as negotiations continue.
The urgency for China to engage as both a major climate player and financial contributor was echoed by Yao Zhe, policy analyst with Greenpeace East Asia. He remarked, “I think it's certainly an important moment and a great opportunity for China to step up.” The analyst supports the notion of China building on the substantial progress it has made to decarbonize its economy and leverage its capabilities to scale up technology.
China has historically been reluctant to commit without adequate recognition of its current contributions, as it has provided approximately $24.5 billion toward climate finance since 2016. While Chinese representatives insist they will only engage voluntarily, evidence suggests their efforts are already creating significant impact. For example, projects funded by China amount to around $3 billion annually outside its borders, highlighting its climate financing activities.
Indeed, the debate around China’s role remains complicated. On the one hand, the country continues to make substantial investments in renewable energy technologies, accounting for around one-third of all global renewable investments, with its drive toward solar and wind expansion accelerating rapidly. Just this year, China invested $273 billion, positioned as o ver twice the spending made by Europe. China has also boasted the largest market for electric vehicles, with nearly 60% of new registrations occurring there.
Yet there lurks the contradiction of China's climate narrative. For all its advancements with renewables, the nation has also reported record-high coal production levels, underscoring its dependence on fossil fuels. Indeed, 2023 was marked by unprecedented coal output, which critics argue undermines China's claim of leadership. This divergence evidently creates tension for those lobbying for China to take the lead at COP29.
To make matters even more complicated, reports indicate China has moved beyond the EU's historical emissions, now surpassing the collective emissions of the 27 EU member states. This analysis reveals the shifting dynamics of global emissions and challenges the conventional wisdom surrounding developed versus developing nations.
China's commitment level is being monitored closely by many stakeholders. Historically, developed nations were responsible for the majority of global emissions. But as the world looks toward achieving global climate goals, China must drastically cut emissions. Despite its current output, there are promising signs of progress; some reports claim emissions may peak and start to decline owing to increased investment in low-carbon energy sources and electric vehicles.
Environmental experts like Niklas Höhne, associated with the nonprofit NewClimate Institute, emphasized the breadth of China’s emissions, representing approximately one-quarter of the globe's total, meaning any peak or decline from China would reflect global emissions trends. He explained, “If China peaks and declines, then also global greenhouse gas emissions peak and decline.”
Despite this pressing urgency, discussions at COP29 face hurdles. With infighting over the allocation of responsibilities and funding, consensus remains elusive. The slow pace of negotiations has left many dissatisfied. The COP29 president has consistently emphasized the need for urgent actions to meet climate challenges, but China’s representatives have made it clear they only plan to take voluntary steps toward the proposed financing goals.
These talks highlight the Arab-Israeli battle for primacy within the climate conversation, particularly with shifting positions from developed countries, including Germany and France, which have pulled out at key moments. Observers note the increasing complexity of climate solutions against the backdrop of perennial power dynamics complicates the discussions.
China’s role as the world’s polluter will weigh heavily on the global stage. Observers maintain this position creates both obligations and opportunities, enhancing its stature. Nevertheless, it creates the narrative of dependence on coal output—one of the world’s dirtiest energy sources. Even so, investment patterns and pollution reduction efforts offer dual narratives, reinforcing the need for more nuanced discussion about climate responsibility and contributions by larger emitters.
This paradox—China being both the largest carbon emitter and the largest investor in clean energy—places them at the fulcrum point of international climate negotiations. With financial commitments under discussion, and the future of the Paris Agreement hanging precariously over conversations, how this situation evolves bears significant implications for global climate dynamics.
The developments at COP29 epitomize the challenges as nations grapple with emissions reduction against heavy fossil fuel dependence globally. China’s decisions about contributing to international climate financing may set the tone for the future, dictation adjustments needed from other nations as we collectively navigate these demanding conversations. Stakeholders are now eagerly awaiting China's next move to conclude what could be pivotal actions as the COP29 assemblies draw to their end.
