China is at the forefront of the global energy transition, tasked with the challenging goal of reducing its carbon emissions and transforming its power system to achieve net-zero emissions. A recent study published on March 8, 2025, has revealed innovative strategies for countries heavily reliant on coal power, particularly China, to transition effectively toward sustainable energy.
The study utilized a provincial-level, hourly-dispatch power system model to explore how repositioning coal power can accelerate this transition. The model incorporates factors such as early retirement and carbon capture retrofitting of coal-fired power plants, which has significant repercussions for countries facing similar challenges.
One of the key findings suggests repositioning coal power from being solely a baseload resource to acting as a flexibility provider. This transformation can mitigate stranded assets by decreasing the average lifespan loss of coal power by 7.9 to 9.6 years, facilitating long-term operational viability.
"For coal-rich but gas-poor economies, repositioning coal power can accelerate net-zero transition by enhancing the competitiveness of retrofitted coal facilities," stated the authors of the article. They noted the potential of this strategy to integrate up to 245 gigawatts of variable renewable energy (VRE) by 2030 under the same carbon emissions reduction targets.
With the rapid decline of coal's cost-competitiveness compared to renewable energy sources, repositioning coal power allows it to flexibly respond to fluctuates in demand and renewable outputs, hence maintaining system stability.
The authors emphasized the economic benefits linked to this repositioning, stating, "Flexible dispatch of coal power reduces China’s power system transition costs by approximately 176 billion U.S. dollars, particularly when considering the costly alternatives of gas power and energy storage technologies." This informs policies needed to incentivize such transitions, highlighting the importance of strategically integrating renewable energy sources.
The model from the study reveals stark contrasts between different transition pathways. Adopting flexible dispatch for coal not only lessens asset stranding risks but also aids climate objectives by averting premature coal retirements. For example, under stringent emissions scenarios, flexible coal dispatch allows up to 651.2 gigawatts of coal capacity to avoid early retirement, decreasing average lifespan loss from 10.8 to 13.1 years to just 2.9 to 3.5 years.
The findings also highlight the uncertainties surrounding China’s energy transition, showcasing the role of provincial disparities where renewable energy integration may vary significantly based on resource availability. For regions like Northeast and Northwest China, VRE would dominate generation, accounting for 91.7% of the electricity generated by 2060 under the study's most ambitious flex scenarios.
While the analysis indicates substantial benefits from promoting flexible coal operations, it also uncovers certain limitations as some regions may struggle to achieve similar transitions due to economic pressures and local governance challenges. The nuances of each region's energy resources, demand fluctuations, and underlying costs present considerable variability in how effectively these strategies can be executed.
Importantly, the study outlines the complex interplay between coal's phasedown and the transition to renewable resources. Without proactive strategies integrating flexible dispatch, coal power risks being prematurely retired, creating additional challenges for achieving net-zero emissions. The transition costs associated with this process reflect potential savings of approximately 176 billion dollars, but they could be significantly affected by policy decisions and market responses.
Countries worldwide can learn from China’s situation, especially as they negotiate urgent energy transitions against their unique backgrounds. The authors advise policymakers to focus on measures securing economic viability for coal power during its transition, as well as ensuring social acceptability amid changing energy landscapes.
Overall, the study's insights push for necessary policy adaptations, not only within China but also for other coal-dependent nations aiming for sustainability and lower carbon emissions. Strategic repositioning of coal as a flexible power source could feasibly assist numerous economies grappling with similar energy transition challenges.
This research significantly contributes to the conversation on global energy transitions, underscoring the importance of innovative approaches to coal power as it navigates the shift toward cleaner energy systems.