China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported a significant rise in the country's exports for March 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 12.4%. This marks the most substantial growth since October 2024, driven by businesses ramping up exports to avoid potential tariffs imposed by the United States. In contrast, imports saw a decline of 4.3% during the same period, reflecting ongoing domestic demand weaknesses.
The NBS's report, released on April 14, 2025, highlighted that China's trade surplus for March stood at $102.64 billion, slightly down from $104.8 billion in December 2024. Exports to the United States rose by 9.1%, while imports from the U.S. dropped by 9.5%, maintaining the U.S. as China's largest trading partner, accounting for approximately 10% of China's total trade.
Furthermore, exports to ASEAN countries surged by 11.6% in March, with Vietnam leading the charge with a remarkable 19% increase. Imports from ASEAN also saw a notable rise of 9.8%. Meanwhile, exports to the European Union (EU) increased by 10.3%, although imports from the EU fell by 7.5%. The report also indicated a 6.7% decrease in iron ore imports, reaching the lowest level since 2023 at 94 million tons, alongside a dramatic 36.8% drop in soybean imports, the lowest since 2008.
On the other hand, imports of semiconductors and crude oil rose by 11.2% and 4.5%, respectively, while exports of semiconductors and rare earth minerals surged by 25% and 20%. This mixed trade data paints a complex picture of China's economic landscape as it navigates global supply chain challenges and geopolitical tensions.
In Thailand, expectations for export growth remain optimistic despite uncertainties regarding U.S. import tariffs. Mr. Visit Limlurcha, Vice Chairman of the Thai National Shippers' Council, noted that the recent volatility in U.S. trade policy has created challenges for exporters. Businesses are now forced to adapt quickly, often planning only three months ahead due to the unpredictability of tariff implementations.
Thai exports in the first quarter of 2025 performed relatively well, driven by concerns over impending tariff hikes from the U.S. which prompted importers to accelerate their purchases. However, with the announcement of a 90-day delay before the new tariffs take effect, there is renewed hope that export figures may continue to rise in the second quarter.
Despite these positive signs, the export sector faces ongoing challenges, particularly regarding reciprocal tariffs that could impact competitiveness. The overall economic forecast for Thailand remains cautious, with growth projections ranging from 2.4% to 2.9% for the year.
In light of these developments, the Thai government is encouraging exporters to focus on high-quality rice markets. Ms. Sunanta Kangwarnkul, Director-General of the Department of International Trade Promotion, emphasized the need for Thailand to enhance the value of its rice exports, particularly in response to India's recent decision to lift its ban on white rice exports.
Vietnam, as the third largest rice exporter globally, has been significantly impacted by India's return to the market, leading to a decrease in global rice prices. In response, the Vietnamese government plans to adjust its rice export strategy, aiming for a reduction of total exports to 4 million tons by 2030 while focusing on high-quality rice production.
Thailand, too, is expected to adapt by promoting premium rice products such as Hom Mali, organic rice, and health-oriented rice to cater to affluent markets in Europe, the Middle East, and Japan. The Department of International Trade Promotion is prepared to assist Thai rice exporters in enhancing their market presence.
As the global economic landscape continues to evolve, the interplay between trade policies, market demands, and export strategies will be crucial for both China and Thailand in navigating the challenges ahead. The coming months will be pivotal in determining the trajectory of trade and economic growth in these nations.
