China’s recent export restrictions on rare earth minerals have ignited significant national security concerns for the U.S. military, raising alarms among defense experts and policymakers alike. These restrictions, implemented on April 4, 2025, affect seven essential rare earth elements and magnets, which are critical components in advanced military technologies.
The United States heavily relies on China for its rare earth imports, with the Asian nation supplying approximately 70% of these materials. This reliance has led to fears that the new restrictions could escalate into further trade actions, including potential bans that would disrupt vital U.S. military supply chains. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), "The United States is particularly vulnerable for these supply chains," which could threaten military readiness and defense manufacturing.
Rare earth elements, a group of 17 metallic elements, play a crucial role in modern technology and are indispensable for military applications. For instance, each F-35 fighter jet contains about 900 pounds of rare earth materials, while submarines can require more than 9,000 pounds. The implications of these restrictions extend beyond just military readiness; they threaten the broader ambitions of the Trump administration to reindustrialize the U.S. economy.
China's control over the global supply of rare earths is staggering, with the country responsible for 61% of mined rare earth elements and an astonishing 92% of processed rare earth outputs. This dominance allows China to leverage its position in the ongoing trade war with the U.S., particularly as tensions have escalated due to tariff hikes imposed by the Trump administration. In response to these tariffs, China has signaled its willingness to use its control over rare earths as a strategic weapon.
In practical terms, the new export controls require Chinese companies to secure special licenses to export these critical materials. This bureaucratic hurdle could lead to significant delays and disruptions in U.S. defense technologies. Analysts warn that while the U.S. maintains a strategic stockpile of rare earth elements, these reserves would only sustain military needs for a matter of months in the event of a complete supply cutoff.
The Pentagon is actively working to expand domestic production and processing capabilities, having invested over $439 million since 2020 in efforts to develop a complete rare earth supply chain by 2027. However, experts caution that building up these capabilities will take time and come with considerable financial and environmental costs.
Furthermore, the implications of these restrictions extend to other sectors as well. Rare earths are not only essential for military applications but are also crucial for various industries, including electronics, renewable energy, and automotive technologies. The restrictions could result in increased costs and potential supply gaps across these sectors, further complicating the economic landscape.
Drew Horn, a former U.S. official, emphasized that while the export restrictions apply to all countries, they are particularly significant for U.S. industries that rely heavily on these materials. He noted that the move signals China's willingness to leverage its dominance in rare earths amid an ongoing trade war with the U.S.
The potential consequences of these restrictions are not limited to immediate supply chain disruptions. They could have long-term ramifications for U.S. military capabilities and technological leadership. As the U.S. seeks to maintain its edge in emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence and hypersonic missile technology, restricted access to rare earths could hinder its ability to innovate and compete effectively.
China's strategic maneuvering in this context is evident. While the U.S. has made efforts to cut China off from advanced technologies, China has countered by targeting upstream supply chains. The result is a precarious situation for U.S. defense and technology industries, which must grapple with the reality of diminished access to essential materials.
In light of these developments, military analysts have expressed concerns about the potential for a "fighter jet gap." U.S. intelligence estimates that China’s shipping production capacity is more than 200 times that of the U.S., raising alarms about China's ability to replenish its stockpiles of munitions in the event of a protracted conflict.
As the U.S. government navigates these challenges, there is a pressing need for strategic planning and investment in domestic capabilities. The current situation underscores the importance of securing a stable supply of rare earths to ensure military readiness and technological advancement.
In summary, China’s recent export restrictions on rare earth minerals pose significant risks to U.S. national security and military readiness. As the U.S. grapples with its dependence on Chinese supply chains, the need for a comprehensive strategy to develop domestic resources and reduce reliance on foreign imports has never been more critical. The coming months will be pivotal in determining how the U.S. responds to this challenge and whether it can effectively safeguard its military and technological interests against an increasingly assertive China.
