For decades, antimony has quietly played a crucial role in the modern world, used in everything from solar panels and flame retardants to munitions and advanced electronics. But a seismic shift is underway in the global supply of this critical metal, and the ripple effects are being felt far beyond the mining sector. At the heart of the matter: China’s dominance in antimony production and processing, and the growing urgency among Western nations to secure alternative sources as geopolitical tensions escalate.
According to Blue Ocean Equities, antimony stands out among critical metals for its heavily skewed resource distribution, with the majority of reserves and processing capacity located outside the West—often in countries with adversarial relationships to the United States and its allies. China, in particular, has historically controlled the lion’s share of antimony mining and refining. But recent years have seen a significant contraction in Chinese mine output, dropping from 110,000 tonnes in 2015 to just 40,000 tonnes in 2023. The reasons are clear: depletion of high-grade resources, stricter environmental regulations, and the consolidation of small-scale mining operations.
This decline comes at a time when demand for antimony is surging, especially from the solar photovoltaic (PV) sector. China Merchants Securities forecasts that antimony demand from the PV industry will skyrocket from 16,000 tonnes in 2021 to 68,000 tonnes by 2026, driving its share of total consumption from 11% to a staggering 39%. Overall, global demand for antimony is estimated to hover around 160,000 tonnes per year, with key growth drivers including the policy-driven transition to renewable energy, tighter regulations for flame retardant materials, and ongoing military conflicts that are depleting strategic stockpiles.
But there’s a catch: new sources of supply are scarce. Beyond Russia and Tajikistan, few new antimony projects are coming online, and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are further disrupting global flows. In this context, China’s decision in September 2024 to restrict exports of antimony—citing national security concerns—sent shockwaves through the market. As Mining.com.au reported, the Chinese government declared it opposed any country using its exports "to engage in activities that undermine China’s national sovereignty, security, and development interests." The move echoes earlier restrictions on gallium and germanium, metals vital to the tech sector, and has fueled speculation that China’s own reserves may be running low.
The implications for Western economies are profound. As The National Interest highlighted, China’s willingness to weaponize its control over critical minerals is not new. In 2010, Beijing embargoed rare earth exports to Japan after a diplomatic incident, sending a clear signal that it could leverage its dominance for geopolitical advantage. More recently, after the Trump administration imposed tariffs on China, Beijing responded by halting exports of rare earth magnets, temporarily forcing Ford Motor Company to close a factory in Chicago due to supply shortfalls.
Amid these challenges, the United States is scrambling to shore up its own supply chains. The Trump administration has recognized the vulnerability posed by reliance on China for rare earths and antimony, moving swiftly to encourage domestic production. In Alaska, for example, Felix Gold is advancing its Treasure Creek Antimony Project towards near-term production, with a first mine permit application expected in the second half of 2025. Executive Director Joe Webb told Mining.com.au, “We’ve recorded five of the seven highest-grade antimony intercepts ever reported in the S&P Global database, and mineralisation begins right at surface. With record antimony prices and a clear US policy push for secure, domestic supply, we couldn’t be better placed.”
Alaska’s strategic importance has not gone unnoticed at the highest levels. The state’s mining industry already provides 12,000 jobs and contributes over C$1.1 billion in wages and services each year. President Trump even signed an executive order titled "Unleashing Alaska’s Extraordinary Resource Potential" to further accelerate development across the region’s vast mineral reserves.
Elsewhere, a host of companies are racing to bring new antimony projects online. Krakatoa Resources has launched preparations for a major drilling campaign at its Zopkhito Antimony-Gold Project in Georgia, backed by a $1.3 million capital raise. Larvotto Resources, meanwhile, has reached a final investment decision to proceed with the $140 million Hillgrove Antimony-Gold Project in New South Wales, targeting first production as early as the second quarter of 2026. Lode Resources is reporting high-grade drill results at its Montezuma Antimony & Silver Project in Australia, and Military Metals is gearing up for fieldwork at its Tiennesgrund Antimony-Gold Project in Slovakia—an asset that could help Europe reduce its own dependence on Chinese supply.
The urgency is not limited to mining. The US government is also investing in alternative supply chains for critical technologies, from telecommunications to semiconductors. After banning Huawei equipment and labeling the company a Chinese military entity, Washington has pushed for domestic competitors in networking and 5G infrastructure. The recent merger of Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Juniper Networks, approved after a national security review, is seen as a key step in building a vertically integrated US alternative to Huawei’s global reach.
Still, the stakes remain high. As The National Interest observed, US stockpiles of antimony are at critically low levels, posing risks for military applications such as munitions and night vision equipment. The Department of Defense has partnered with private firms like MP Materials to reestablish domestic rare earth and critical mineral supply chains, but the road ahead is long and fraught with challenges.
Internationally, the geopolitical landscape is only growing more complex. In early September 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at a major military parade in Beijing, underscoring a tightening axis among US strategic rivals. With China, Russia, and North Korea increasingly aligned, Western strategists are sounding the alarm about the dangers of continued dependence on adversarial nations for essential materials.
Even as new projects come online, the market for antimony remains in structural deficit. Prices are likely to stay elevated as supply struggles to keep pace with surging demand from the clean energy transition, defense, and advanced manufacturing. The search for secure, domestic, and allied sources of antimony and other critical minerals is now a top priority—not just for economic security, but for national defense and technological leadership in an era of renewed great power competition.
The race to secure antimony is emblematic of the broader struggle for control over the building blocks of the modern world. As governments and companies alike scramble to adapt, the outcome will shape not just markets, but the balance of power for years to come.
