Over half a year into Donald Trump’s second term as president, the United States’ space program finds itself in a precarious spot. NASA, the agency that once put the first humans on the Moon, is now struggling with a leadership vacuum, budgetary uncertainty, and mounting technical delays. Meanwhile, China, long seen as an up-and-comer in space exploration, is making swift, headline-grabbing advances toward its own lunar ambitions. The question on many minds: Is the U.S. about to lose the new Moon race?
The sense of disorder at NASA is hard to overstate. Since the start of 2025, the agency has been without a permanent leader. The White House, according to reporting from Futurism, has cycled through interim administrators, most recently appointing former transportation secretary Sean Duffy over a month ago—hardly a vote of confidence in the agency’s direction. This leadership uncertainty comes at a time when NASA’s science budget is facing what have been described as “devastating cuts,” as the Trump administration pivots its focus toward crewed exploration and away from broader scientific research.
The impact of these shifts is already being felt in NASA’s Artemis program, the much-touted initiative to return American astronauts to the lunar surface for the first time in over half a century. The original goal, as declared by President Trump back in 2019, was to “put Americans back on the Moon by 2024.” Fast-forward to August 2025, and that target has slipped to no earlier than mid-2027—and even that date is starting to look optimistic. According to Ars Technica, the delays stem from a combination of missed deadlines by contractors and significant technical challenges, particularly with SpaceX’s Starship vehicle, which is supposed to serve as NASA’s Human Landing System for the Artemis 3 mission.
SpaceX, led by billionaire Elon Musk, has found itself under intense scrutiny. The company’s Starship rocket, while revolutionary in concept, has yet to prove itself as a reliable means of ferrying astronauts from lunar orbit down to the Moon’s surface. The technical hurdles, coupled with a high-profile falling out between Musk and President Trump, have only added to the uncertainty. Musk, for his part, has been vocal in his belief that the Moon is something of a distraction, arguing that humanity should focus on Mars instead. The White House’s relationship with Musk has grown increasingly complicated, and his influence over NASA’s trajectory is, at this point, anyone’s guess.
All the while, China is moving with remarkable speed and purpose. In August 2025, the country’s space program achieved two major milestones that have sent ripples through the global space community. First, China’s manned lunar lander, named Lanyue—which means “embracing the moon”—successfully completed a comprehensive landing and takeoff test in Hebei Province. According to statements from the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA), this was “a key step in the development of China’s manned lunar exploration program” and marked the “first time that China has carried out a test of extraterrestrial landing and takeoff capabilities of a manned spacecraft.”
The Lanyue lander, designed to transport Chinese astronauts (or “taikonauts”) between lunar orbit and the surface, is no simple craft. It will also carry a lunar rover and scientific payloads, functioning as a life-support, energy, and data center for activities on the Moon. The successful test, widely covered by state media including CGTN, has been described as a “complete success” and a critical milestone on China’s path to landing its first astronauts on the Moon before 2030.
But that wasn’t all. China also conducted a static fire test of its Long March-10 carrier rocket at the Wenchang Spacecraft Launch Site in Hainan Province. All seven engines of the rocket’s first stage fired simultaneously, producing nearly 1,000 tonnes of thrust—the most powerful test of its kind ever conducted in China. The Long March-10, a three-stage behemoth measuring 5 meters in diameter and up to 92.5 meters tall, is designed to launch both the Mengzhou manned spacecraft and the Lanyue lunar lander. Its sibling, the Long March-10A, is a two-stage reusable rocket that will support launches for China’s space station operations.
The CMSA has been clear about the significance of these achievements. As reported by CNSA Watcher and other outlets, the Long March-10 series “will play a key role in upgrading China’s space-Earth transportation system, working alongside the Mengzhou spacecraft to enable lunar landings.” These technical milestones not only bring China closer to its stated lunar ambitions but also serve as a stark reminder that the global balance of power in space is shifting.
Behind the scenes, much of China’s lunar strategy is being shaped by Zhou Jianping, the architect of the country’s space program. Zhou has been instrumental in developing plans to send Chinese astronauts to the Moon by 2030 and to establish a permanent lunar research station. According to coverage from Space Day 2019 in Beijing, Zhou’s vision is not just about planting a flag, but about creating a lasting presence on the Moon—a goal that echoes, and in some ways challenges, the United States’ own ambitions.
Dean Cheng, a Chinese space policy analyst, told Ars Technica that “at the rate things are going, sadly, it seems quite likely that the Chinese will land on the Moon before NASA can return to the Moon.” He warned that the “geopolitical impact” of such a development would be “enormous.” Beyond the symbolism of winning the new Moon race, China could gain a significant advantage by establishing “longer-term facilities and presence” on the lunar surface. This, Cheng argues, would allow China to “have an enormous say over technical standards, data standards, etc., for cis-lunar activities.”
The stakes, then, are far higher than mere national pride. The Trump administration has tried to signal its commitment to space exploration, proposing $1 billion in additional funding for Mars missions in the 2026 NASA budget. But with NASA’s plans for the Moon still mired in uncertainty, and with leadership in constant flux, the agency’s ability to deliver on its promises is in serious doubt. The decision to prioritize exploration over science, combined with the ongoing feud between Trump and Musk, has left NASA adrift at a critical juncture.
Meanwhile, China’s methodical progress, underpinned by robust government support and a clear strategic vision, is sending a message to the world: the next flag planted on the Moon could very well be Chinese. As both nations race to secure their place in lunar history, the outcome will shape not only the future of space exploration but also the broader dynamics of global power and technological leadership.
For now, the world watches as the United States and China chart divergent paths to the Moon. The finish line is in sight, but the leader is far from certain.
