China’s steel market is currently exhibiting mixed trends, with prices shifting significantly week over week, as reported by various sources. The fluctuations are primarily influenced by changing conditions on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and real-time inventory assessments from key enterprises.
Specifically, rebar prices have seen an increase, climbing by RMB 10 per tonne to RMB 3,320 ($455) compared to the previous week. This uptick follows the positive movements observed within SHFE rebar futures, which also rose by RMB 27 per tonne to RMB 3,310 ($454). On the other hand, the prices for hot-rolled coils (HRC) declined by RMB 10 to RMB 3,400 ($466), reflecting the more bearish sentiments within the market
According to the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), the total steel inventory at key enterprises had reached 14.64 million tonnes by mid-December 2024, which marks a 3.2% increase from early December. This buildup of inventory might exert additional pressure on price dynamics, especially considering the historical patterns of demand fluctuations during the colder months.
On the raw materials side, iron ore spot prices fell by $2 per tonne week over week, settling at $99 per tonne CFR China. The decline is attributed to rumors surrounding potential production cuts at various steel mills, which have stoked concerns over diminishing demand for raw inputs. Despite the narrowing discounts and possible supply disruptions, market sentiment remained subdued as the trading activity slowed, and buyers exhibited cautious purchasing behavior. Inventory levels of iron ore at major ports decreased by 950,000 tonnes to 146.85 million tonnes, indicating some responsiveness to the current price environment.
The dynamics observed are not unique to China alone; global steel demand traditionally eases during winter, and this seasonal slowdown is likely to compound challenges faced by the industry. With Australia’s coking coal prices also declining, by over $8 to $188 per tonne, the market has been under similar pressures. Limited buying interest has played a pivotal role amid the backdrop of accepted met coke price cuts and changes within the supply chain as assessed by industry experts.
While the domestic steel market grapples with these price fluctuations, the introduction of the trends function on the Bluesky social media platform highlights another area of significant market interest. This dynamic feature aims to provide users with insights by reflecting the frequently occurring keywords within new messages. Currently, the function is available only in English, and users are reporting varied access levels. Nonetheless, with over 25 million users and marked growth of about 25 percent compared to the previous month, Bluesky's engagement strategies seem promising.
Functionality within Bluesky features trends displayed prominently on both its desktop and mobile applications, which updates dynamically, providing timely insights for its user base. According to representatives of Bluesky, the trends functionality will be enhanced and expanded, aiming to improve user experience significantly.
Overall, as China continues to navigate the challenges of its steel industry, it highlights the broader themes around market volatility and consumer behavior. The interplay between policy changes to encourage economic recovery and global economic conditions will undoubtedly shape future pricing and demand trends. Simultaneously, social media platforms like Bluesky serve as modern barometers for consumer interest and engagement within these fast-paced market dynamics.
Moving forward, the global steel industry remains on alert for governmental policy changes which might stimulate demand. The engagement of users on platforms like Bluesky may similarly influence marketplace perceptions and trends. With the winter season impacting demand cycles, companies and analysts alike will be tasked with maintaining adaptability amid potential fluctuations both within traditional markets and digital platforms.
