China's ambitions to bolster its naval capabilities have faced a significant setback following the recent sinking of one of its newest nuclear-powered attack submarines. This incident occurred at a shipyard near Wuhan, and it is believed to have taken place sometime between May and June 2024. According to U.S. defense officials who spoke under the condition of anonymity, the Chinese military has attempted to keep the details of the incident under wraps, raising eyebrows about the operational integrity of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLA Navy).
The vessel involved is part of the Zhou-class, the first of its kind to be introduced by China. This class features advanced design elements aimed at improving naval maneuverability, particularly its x-shaped stern. The submarine was reportedly docked at the Yangtze River for final equipping before its much-anticipated maiden voyage when the incident occurred.
Following the sinking, large salvage cranes were deployed to the site as early as June. This was evidenced by satellite imagery showing cranes actively working at the riverbed where the submarine had been submerged. Brent Sadler, who is a retired U.S. Navy submarine officer and now serves as a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, described the event as “significant.” He noted the sinking raises difficult questions about equipment reliability and training standards within the PLA Navy.
A senior U.S. official reflected on the event, expressing it as not surprising for the PLA Navy to conceal such problems, casting a spotlight on the challenges facing China's defense industrial base. These issues include long-standing concerns about corruption and the need for increased accountability within military ranks. This year alone has seen numerous leadership changes as President Xi Jinping has tried to tackle corruption, asserting the necessity of loyalty and reliability among military personnel.
The incident didn’t remain under wraps for long, as public attention was drawn to unusual activity at the shipyard, noted by Thomas Shugart, another former U.S. submarine officer. He commented on the bizarre nature of the situation, stating, “Can you picture a U.S. nuclear submarine sinking without anyone talking about it?” His statement reflects the unusual quietness surrounding China's reporting of the incident.
While the submarine has since been salvaged, experts predict it might take several months before it’s operational again. The process is complex: the vessel would need extensive repairs, including drying out all the electronics and potentially replacing electric motors. Still, security analysts remain cautiously optimistic, asserting the likelihood of nuclear leakage is minimal, as the submarine had yet to venture far from shore under high-power conditions.
Officials from Taiwan have indicated they’re closely monitoring the situation through various intelligence sources. Yet, they have remained reticent about sharing specific details. Reports of cranes at the Wuhan shipyard were captured on satellite imagery taken around mid-June, raising more questions than answers.
The broader implications of this submarine sinking extend beyond just operational setbacks for the PLA Navy. With China currently working on enhancing its naval forces and making bold claims over the South China Sea—a region of strategic significance—the embarrassment of this incident could potentially create ripples through the military's public communication and strategic planning.
The nautical capabilities of the Chinese fleet have been steadily growing, with the country now possessing more than 370 naval vessels, including various types of submarines. Pentagon reports suggest this force will see substantial growth, potentially increasing to 65 submarines by 2025 and 80 by 2035. The Zhou-class submarines are intended to play a key role within this larger strategic framework, yet this setback may alter the tempo of those ambitions.
Despite the incident, experts like Shugart believe the PLA Navy's upward trend will continue regardless of the setback posed by the sinking. He noted, “If this ship eventually does get repaired, and I’m sure it will, it'll be significantly more capable than what they were building before at the shipyard.”
All eyes are now on how China would manage the public relations fallout and rectify the damage caused by this incident. If history is any guide, maintaining operational secrecy might take priority over transparency, especially on issues involving military vulnerabilities.
