China's influence in Latin America is steadily rising, creating ripples of concern and interest across the globe, particularly noting the recent activities involving key summits and significant infrastructure projects.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has recently embarked on a nine-day diplomatic tour to Latin America, inaugurate the new $3.5 billion Chancay port project located north of Lima, Peru, and to participate in both the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit and the G20 Summit taking place in Brazil. Observers argue these events symbolize China's determination to position itself as a pivotal global player amid shifting international dynamics, especially with the United States approaching potential changes under President-Elect Donald Trump.
According to Zhiqun Zhu, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at Bucknell University, this tour's timing is notable as it occurs at the moment when the region, often referred to as 'the backyard' of the United States, may experience strained diplomatic relations due to the U.S.'s unilateral foreign policy under Trump. Zhu asserts, “the trip is especially significant since Latin America is viewed as ‘the backyard’ of the United States; and since the next U.S. president is likely to return to a unilateral approach.”
Xi's tour serves multiple purposes. Not only is he strengthening bilateral ties with several Latin American countries, but he is also showcasing China's infrastructure investment capabilities, highlighting the Chancay port project as the largest deep-water port in South America. This port, operated by China's state-run Cosco Shipping Corporation under a 30-year concession, is anticipated to significantly decrease shipping times for Peruvian products heading toward China, facilitating trade for agricultural commodities and metals such as lithium and copper.
"The port will become the largest deep-water port in South America and it will drastically reduce the time needed to ship products from Peru to China,” states Leland Lazarus, associate director of national security at Florida International University. This port is one of many committing to enhancing China's footprint through the Belt and Road Initiative, aiming to construct over 100 global infrastructure projects promoting trade connectivity.
This initiative has attracted numerous Latin American nations, including Peru, Brazil, and Chile, which have collectively exported $135 billion worth of goods to China. The overwhelming lack of infrastructure investment from Western nations has increasingly driven these countries to welcome Chinese investments, viewing them as practical solutions to their developmental challenges. Zhu elaborates, “There is a huge gap in infrastructure development in Global South countries, and Western powers are not active in helping [to] fill the gap.”
Despite welcoming these advancements, U.S. officials have voiced concerns. The U.S. worries about the long-term military and strategic ramifications of China's growing presence through projects like the Chancay port. Recently, Laura Richardson, outgoing chief of the U.S. Southern Command, warned of the possibility for the facility to be utilized for military purposes, which could adversely affect U.S. interests. Interestingly, experts suggest it's unlikely Peru would permit militarization, balancing its relationship with both China and the U.S. Nevertheless, concerns remain over China's method of managing similar investments elsewhere, which have sometimes veered toward fostering military capabilities.
The geopolitical tension becomes more pronounced against the backdrop of the BRICS membership game. With Indonesia now seeking to join the BRICS, this move signifies another layer of China's influence as it solidifies relationships with nations interested in enhancing their own geopolitical standing. Recently inaugurated Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has made this one of his administration's early moves indicating strong aspirations to align with countries like China as member states of BRICS, which include significant economic powers such as Brazil, Russia, and India.
Indonesia’s interest is largely influenced by the notion of receiving support through non-intrusive development assistance from China, differentiator from typical Western investment strategies which often impose strict conditions. Indonesian political leaders are energized by the prospect of Chinese investments providing immediate growth opportunities without complicated bureaucratic entanglements.
Analysts recognize, though, the relationship to BRICS could also carry potential drawbacks. Critics point out Indonesia needs to clarify its intention behind seeking BRICS membership, balancing relationships between both Western institutions and new alliances without creating friction.
With all these dynamics at play, Xi's upcoming participation at both the APEC and G20 summits is viewed as significant for reaffirming China's commitment to maintaining its influential role globally. With the United States potentially adopting more insular policies, these summits offer Xi the stage to assert China's viability as a cooperative force dedicated to progressive global development.
At home, political analysts suggest Xi's endeavors, particularly related to Latin America, could also resonate well with domestic audiences, reinforcing narratives around China's rise as a major world power, particularly through strategic partnerships and developing nations participation.
China's strategic investing emphasizes not just economic ties but extends toward soft power, as it seeks to cultivate political relationships and lend credence to its position as the leader of the Global South. This framework might resonate with several Latin American countries, which largely desire infrastructures aligned with their national ambitions, especially amid perceived U.S. isolationism. Ian Chong, from the National University of Singapore, notes this double-edged potential, remarking, “Beijing will double down on the image of being the leader of the Global South and some countries will be attracted by the message.”
It’s clear the potency of China's strategy lies not solely within mere trade agreements but extends toward fostering reliance through infrastructure investments and developmental aid without imposing the political frameworks typically advocated by Western countries. With initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative ever-expanding, the drive for influence will only intensify, reshaping the tactics and strategies countries adopt on the international stage.
