On March 27, 2025, tensions between China and Japan escalated as the Chinese Ministry of National Defense condemned Japan's recent military plans regarding Taiwan. The spokesperson for the ministry, Wu Qian, stated that Japan is the least qualified country to make irresponsible remarks about the Taiwan issue, emphasizing that this matter does not concern Japan. This statement came in response to Japan's announcement of plans to deploy long-range missiles on Kyushu Island, citing concerns over potential attacks from mainland China on Taiwan.
Wu expressed China's discontent with Japan's military posturing, particularly in light of a recent statement from a senior Japanese official who voiced serious concerns over China's increasing defense budget for 2025. Wu noted that China had already provided detailed explanations regarding this budget increase, urging the international community to remain vigilant about Japan's ambitions to expand its military capabilities significantly.
"In reality, considering Japan's history as an aggressor against its Asian neighbors during World War II, Japan is the most willing to incite confrontation among other countries against China," Wu stated, reminding the audience that this year marks the 80th anniversary of China's victory over Japanese aggression and fascism. He urged Japan to learn from history and stop misrepresenting China's defense policy and military strategy.
Meanwhile, the Japanese government is taking proactive measures in response to the rising tensions. It has revealed a plan to evacuate approximately 120,000 individuals from the southern islands closest to Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. This plan involves utilizing both commercial and military aircraft, as well as ships, to facilitate the evacuation of around 110,000 residents and 10,000 visitors from Sakishima Island in Okinawa Prefecture to various prefectures in southwestern Japan.
The evacuation operation is expected to take about six days and is part of a broader strategy to enhance national security amid escalating fears of military aggression from China. The Japanese government also announced plans to conduct field exercises in 2026 to prepare for such evacuations from remote areas in southern Okinawa, starting in April of that year.
Yoshimasa Hayashi, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary, explained that the evacuation plan aims to deepen discussions about the logistics of relocating residents in the event of armed conflict. He noted that the effectiveness of preparations for such large-scale evacuations has improved, incorporating logistical aspects like vehicle deployment, meal distribution, and relief supplies.
In the updated national security strategy, which outlines Japan's long-term policy, the government committed to formulating a plan for rapid evacuations from the southwestern region well in advance of any potential armed attack. The proximity of the islands involved in the evacuation plan to Taiwan, particularly Yonaguni Island, which lies just 100 kilometers from Taiwan, underscores the urgency of these preparations.
As the situation unfolds, the implications of a military confrontation over Taiwan extend beyond the region, potentially involving the United States in direct conflict with China. This scenario presents significant security challenges for Japan, which is a key U.S. ally in Asia. The Japanese government is keenly aware of these risks and is taking steps to ensure the safety of its citizens in the face of increasing military threats.
Both nations are navigating a complex landscape of historical grievances and contemporary security dilemmas. The Chinese government’s response to Japan’s military plans reflects a broader concern about regional stability and the potential for conflict. As Wu Qian articulated, Japan's militarization efforts could provoke further tensions, and he called for the international community to scrutinize Japan's military ambitions closely.
In light of these developments, the situation in the Taiwan Strait remains precarious. The Japanese government's evacuation plans signal a recognition of the potential for conflict and an effort to prepare for a range of scenarios that could arise from escalating tensions with China. As both countries continue to assert their positions, the international community watches closely, aware that the stakes are high not just for Japan and China, but for regional and global security as well.
As Japan prepares for possible contingencies, the dialogue between the two nations will be critical in preventing misunderstandings and miscalculations that could lead to conflict. The historical context of Japan's military actions in World War II looms large, and both nations must navigate these sensitive waters with care. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether diplomacy can prevail over the specter of conflict in the region.
