China's military presence and its extensive activities within the South China Sea have sparked significant regional tension, drawing attention from nations concerned about Beijing's growing assertiveness and military capabilities. Hainan, often regarded as China’s equivalent to Hawaii, has evolved from a tranquil tourist destination to the centerpiece of China’s military might, housing cutting-edge facilities aimed at projecting power throughout the contested waters of the sea.
Over the last two decades, China has heavily invested in military infrastructure on Hainan and artificial islands within the South China Sea, with estimates now placing this investment's value at over $50 billion. This figure surpasses the total valuation of U.S. military bases situated across Hawaii, underscoring the strategic transformation of the island from farmland and commercial ports to fortified military bases. The Greater Yulin Naval Base on Hainan stands out with its valuation at more than $18 billion, potentially rivaling one of the U.S.’s most pivotal military installations.
The strategic significance of Hainan lies not just in its military assets, but also how these developments are seen as threats to regional stability and as challenges to U.S. military interests. "There's no denying the increase in the capability within the South China Sea ... is a threat ... to U.S. interests," remarked Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.
Meanwhile, as China continues its military buildup, nations like Vietnam and Indonesia have also ramped up their defense capabilities amid fears of aggressive Chinese territorial claims. Vietnam, for example, appears determined to strengthen its strategic positions within the Spratly Islands, historically contested by multiple countries. Recent reports suggest Vietnam is enhancing military structures, including airstrips capable of accommodating heavier aircraft, potentially to counterbalance Chinese expansion.
Recent activities from Vietnam involve significant developments on artificial islands within the Spratlys. The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) highlighted construction activities on Barque Canada Reef, where Vietnam has reclaimed significant land area. A newly lengthened airstrip, now measuring approximately 1,600 meters with the potential for expansion, substantially increases Vietnam’s ability to deploy combat aircraft to the region. AMTI believes this may not be the only planned runway, with indications of similar developments at other strategically important reefs.
Adding to the equation is Indonesia, which has maintained its longstanding assertion of sovereignty over parts of the South China Sea, particularly after incidents involving China’s coast guard disrupting Indonesian exploratory activities. Indonesia has recently claimed it successfully repelled Chinese vessels conducting surveys near its territories, with officials stating, "We will do what is appropriate" to protect the nation’s territorial waters and rights.
Despite past instances of friction, analysts noted Indonesia's diplomatic approach as it continues to navigate the challenges posed by China’s expansive claims. China, for its part, insists its coast guard operates within its legal jurisdiction and is willing to engage with Indonesia to resolve these disputes. Yet, the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling back in 2016 dismissing China’s sweeping claims remains relevant today, identifying the legality of competing maritime rights.
The collective military posturing from Southeast Asian nations alongside China reflects a broader regional concern about dominance over the South China Sea, home to significant oil reserves, valuable fishing zones, and pivotal shipping lanes. Recent incidents represent more than mere skirmishes; they reflect the underlying struggle for control and influence over this strategically significant region.
China, on its end, isn’t simply building bases; it’s creating capabilities. The deployment of two of its aircraft carriers during recent drills, reported as the first dual-carrier exercises held within the South China Sea, serves as a reminder of the military transformation underway. Military commentators have suggested such drills, showcasing coordination between the Liaoning and Shandong, optimize combat effectiveness and expand operational reach, creating enhanced deterrent capabilities against rival forces, particularly those of the U.S. and its allies.
Despite the growing military presence of various countries, analysts agree the military buildup by China—especially on Hainan—serves not only to protect its territorial claims but also as part of its broader ambition for global influence. Retired Rear Adm. Michael Studeman emphasized the need for the U.S. and its allies to bolster military capabilities to prevent Chinese aggression, indicating how the dynamics of power within the region are shifting.
The situation continues to evolve, with nations on alert for potential escalations. The South China Sea, recognized for its economic opportunities, also stands on the precipice of geopolitical tension. Collaborative defense strategies and diplomatic engagements among Southeast Asian nations, the U.S., and other partners are likely to be pivotal as the narrative of security and sovereignty develops within this contested waterscape.
