Germany's conservative alliance, comprising the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU), has emerged triumphant in the recent 2025 federal election, securing 28.6% of the vote according to preliminary results released on February 24.
Friedrich Merz, the CDU/CSU chancellor candidate, proclaimed his party's victory, asserting, "We won the 2025 federal election," during celebrations at the party headquarters. Despite the win, Merz acknowledged the need for coalition talks, as the CDU/CSU did not obtain enough votes to govern alone.
Initial reports indicate the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party garnered 20.8% of the vote, marking significant growth from previous elections. "We have doubled! They wanted to halve us, but the opposite has happened," said AfD co-leader Alice Weidel, claiming the party's current strength indicates its embeddedness within mainstream society.
Outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz admitted to the defeat of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which won only 16.4% of the vote, the party's worst showing since 1890. Scholz expressed his responsibility for the disappointing election results, stating, "This is a bitter election outcome for the Social Democratic Party. It is also an electoral defeat. I have the responsibility for the election result."
Voter turnout for this election was remarkably high at 84%, the highest since reunification, indicating significant public engagement. Following the election results, Friedrich Merz emphasized the urgency of forming a new government, stating, "Tonight we will celebrate, and from tomorrow we start working. The world out there is not waiting for us."
Discussions around coalition possibilities are heating up, with the CDU/CSU aligning itself with the SPD and party dynamics shifting considerably. Merz has ruled out any cooperation with the AfD, amid concerns over the party's right-wing extremist elements. He reiterated this stance, explaining, "We have fundamental differences of opinion, for example in foreign policy, security policy, and many other areas, on the topics of Europe, NATO, and the euro currency," highlighting the challenges he faces as he seeks to form effective governance.
The political climate post-election is complex, with other potential coalition paths including the Greens and the Left Party. While the Greens have shown willingness to engage, the chances of obtaining majority consensus remain complicated as parties navigate their respective losses and electoral recalibrations.
Looking forward, Merz has emphasized the necessity of strengthening European autonomy, asserting intentions to reduce dependence on the U.S. as coalition talks progress. On social media, he remarked, "My impression over the last few days is Russia and America are finding common ground, over the heads of Ukraine, and accordingly over those of Europe." This statement suggests potential shifts in Germany's foreign policy direction under his future leadership as chancellor.
Merz's critiques of the U.S. administration, including claims of indifference toward European interests, positions him as seeking greater strategic independence for Germany and the EU. He has stressed the importance of prioritizing European defense capabilities, urging the need for Germany to step up its role on the continent, stating, "Germany must quickly become ready for action again, so we can again be present in Europe and the world perceives Germany is governed reliably."
With the election setting the stage for substantial political shifts, the incoming coalition will face significant challenges. Germany is grappling with pressing economic issues, marking its most significant economic crisis since reunification. Merz’s administration will need to address military spending, infrastructure restoration, and climate transformation—all demanding considerable financial outlays.
Further complicate matters, the far-right AfD is positioning itself as the largest opposition force, which could lead to increased tensions within the parliamentary assembly. Weidel has called for the CDU/CSU to cooperate with the AfD to accomplish their shared promises, particularly concerning immigration policies, which remain highly contentious across party lines.
Overall, the CDU/CSU's success reflects shifting sentiments among the German electorate, especially amid economic uncertainties and changing political landscapes across Europe. The coming weeks will determine not only the new governance structure but also the broader direction of German and European policy.
The 2025 federal election result marks not just change at the parliamentary level but also points toward broader geopolitical realignments and re-evaluations of traditional alliances. With challenges mounting both domestically and internationally, the new government under Merz will need to navigate carefully to fulfill its ambitious promises to voters.