Germany experienced one of its most pivotal political events on February 23, 2025, with record-breaking voter turnout of 83.5%, the highest since reunification. This early federal election was necessitated by the collapse of the three-party coalition government composed of the Social Democrats (SPD), Green Party, and Free Democratic Party (FDP) late last year. Amidst this electoral backdrop, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), emerged as the leading force, spearheaded by their chancellor candidate, Friedrich Merz.
Projected results indicate strong support for the CDU/CSU, which garnered approximately 28.5% to 29% of the votes. The CDU's significant election win came as they outpaced the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which surged to around 20%. This represented substantial growth from their previous election performance, rising from 10.3% of votes cast.
While the SPD, led by the outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has suffered humiliations, recording only 16% to 16.5% of the total votes, they experienced the steepest decline of any party. The election results are poised to reshape Germany's political scene dramatically, particularly as they signal shifting voter loyalties.
The coalition calculator, which estimates possible government formations based on voter shares, indicates CDU/CSU will need coalitions to secure the 316 seats necessary to form the next government. Although they have emerged as the dominant party, they do not hold an absolute majority within the Bundestag, which consists of 630 seats. Given this structure, the CDU/CSU will be deliberatively calling for negotiations with smaller parties to form a new ruling coalition.
Interestingly, the election witnessed notable migration patterns among voters. A significant number transitioned from the center-left SPD to the conservative bloc, with the CDU/CSU reportedly absorbing about 2 million of SPD's votes. Another notable shift saw The Left Party gain approximately 540,000 votes from the SPD and about 600,000 from the Greens.
Friedrich Merz, upon seeing the exit polls and awaiting full confirmation of final results, proclaimed, "We have won the election." He emphasized the need for swift coalition talks, reflecting the urgency of the situation. He stated clearly, "The world out there is not waiting for us and it is not waiting for lengthy coalition talks and negotiations," underlining the pressing need for political stability.
The broader electoral results display the significant shift among demographics, with male voters gravitating strongly toward the conservative CDU/CSU and the right-wing AfD. Comparatively, female voters showed preference for the SPD and the hard-left Die Linke. This divergence showcases not only partisan divides but also highlights generational differences, as younger voters leaned more toward the progressive left.
Voter turnout aside, the election unfolded under the shadow of an array of challenging issues, including economic uncertainties exacerbated by rising costs of living, spiraling rents, and overall discontent among German citizens. Questions have been raised concerning how future political alterations may address these pressing problems, with many observers closely monitoring the prospect of CDU/CSU's political strategy focusing heavily on rightward shifts.
The transition to electoral governance presents another significant hurdle. Once the final results are tallied, coalition talks will commence, outlining the new configuration of power. Merz’s posited policies, particularly on immigration and citizenship, indicate he plans to reverse some of the dual citizenship reforms enacted by the SPD-led coalition. Political analysts have noted caution, stressing the coalition structure will likely dictate substantial negotiation delays, impacting how quickly policies could be enacted.
Public sentiment appears cautious as Germany looks toward the formation of its new government amid challenges abroad, including the continuing ramifications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Merz’s victory not only alters the domestic conversation but sets the stage for potential shifts within European security and economic strategies.
Germany's political saga took another turn on November 6, 2024, coinciding with the re-election of Donald Trump. The ensuing fallout saw Scholz's coalition unravel, leading to predetermined elections and voter frustrations boiling over. Looking toward the next few weeks and months, all eyes will be on how the CDU/CSU manages the coalition talks and what policymakers might prioritize once the new administration takes effect.
Overall, the results of the February 23 election highlight pivotal changes within Germany’s political dynamics. With the CDU/CSU positioned to lead and the AfD rising as a significant ally on the right, the new parliament must confront pressing economic issues domestically and secure Germany’s role within Europe’s shifting political landscapes.