Germany has seen significant political changes following the recent federal elections held on February 23, 2025, where the conservative CDU-CSU coalition achieved victory, leaving the ruling SPD struggling with its worst result since the inception of the federal republic. Under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, the CDU-CSU garnered between 28.5% and 29% of the votes, marking their return to prominence.
The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) also made dramatic gains, securing between 19.5% and 20% of the votes, effectively doubling their share from the previous election. This upward trend has alarmed many observers, as it is the highest level the AfD has reached since its inception, with their leader, Alice Weidel, proclaiming, "We have never been as strong nationally," from the AfD headquarters.
Incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the SPD faced significant backlash from voters, with his party only achieving around 16% to 16.5% of the votes. Scholz did not shy away from acknowledging the party's poor performance, stating, "The election results are bad, and I take responsibility for it," as he addressed his supporters at SPD headquarters.
The results not only highlight the CDU-CSU's resurgence but also the troubling growth of the far-right, which is now the second strongest political force within Germany. This election has presented numerous challenges, particularly for Merz, who is expected to establish his government amid deep divisions within the political sphere. Despite leading the CDU-CSU to victory, the results fell short of the expectations set prior to the elections, highlighting the difficulties the party may encounter as they aim to create stable governance.
Contrastingly, the SPD, once praised as the coalition of progress, now contemplates the fallout of such a significant defeat. Their inability to connect with voters or present attractive policies evidently impacted their performance. Merz is poised to lead the coalition with potentially complex negotiations necessary to form the next government, as he lacked the absolute majority required.
The election also serves as a wakeup call to many within the broader German and European community, illustrating voters' shifting sentiments amid economic strife, geopolitical tensions, and dissatisfaction with migration policies. The CDU’s Merz will have his work cut out for him, requiring him to address various pressing concerns, including infrastructure needs and social cohesion.
Despite promising not to ally with the AfD, the route forward continues to look uncertain as the rise of the far right could reshape the contours of governance. The critiques leveled at the previous governments could potentially influence how the new coalition navigates legislation moving forward.
Political commentator Gerald Knaus has warned of the ramifications of politicizing migrants, stating, "Merz has vindicated the AfD’s narrative, claiming foreigners pose security threats." This perspective could dangerously polarize both the electorate and the national discourse.
This election not only may define the leadership of Germany for years to come but could also set the tone for Europe’s relationship with the country. Germany is often seen as the backbone of the EU, and fluctuations alone within its political fabric can have ripple effects across the continent. Challenges such as national security, energy policies, and migration will be focal points as Merz leads his administration forward.
With the historic win, Merz's leadership will be tested against the backdrop of deep-rooted socio-economic issues, and it remains to be seen whether his policies will resonate broadly with German citizens or whether intra-party divisions will hinder progress. The potential for change looms large, yet the path remains fraught with uncertainty as Germany transitions from the Scholz-led government to one under Merz.
Germany faces complex questions about its societal values and its approach to continuing partnerships within Europe. The road forward is likely to be bumpy, with Merz balancing the expectations of his constituency with broader demands for stability and unity. The fate of the SPD and the role of the AfD add layers of complexity to Germany's political future, reflecting societal fissures waiting to be addressed.