As Germany prepares for a significant political shift, the CDU/CSU coalition has regained its footing ahead of the anticipated election of Friedrich Merz as Chancellor. A recent ZDF-Politbarometer poll indicates that the CDU/CSU has surged to 27 percent, marking a one-point increase from mid-April. Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has slightly declined to 23 percent, solidifying its position as the second strongest party in the country.
In the wake of this polling news, the political landscape appears to be shifting. The Social Democrats (SPD) remain steady at 15 percent, while the Greens have dropped to 11 percent. The Left party holds firm at 10 percent, and both the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the BSW are struggling below the five percent threshold, at 4 percent and 3 percent respectively.
On May 6, 2025, Merz is poised to become the tenth Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, a role he has been preparing for since taking over as CDU chairman in 2022. This election comes at a critical time as the CDU seeks to reclaim its leadership role in German politics, which has been challenged by fluctuating voter sentiments and the rise of the AfD.
According to the latest ZDF poll, public opinion is divided regarding the new government’s ability to address pressing national issues. While 48 percent of respondents believe that the Schwarz-Rot coalition will contribute positively to tackling the country's challenges, 47 percent express skepticism about its effectiveness. This close divide underscores the uncertainty surrounding Merz’s incoming administration.
When asked about the priorities for the new government, a significant 45 percent of those surveyed identified the economy as the most critical area requiring attention. This was followed by social issues, with 21 percent prioritizing that area. In contrast, only 12 percent considered asylum and refugee policies as the most urgent task, while both defense and climate protection were mentioned by 10 percent of respondents.
As Merz prepares to take office, public sentiment regarding his stance on international issues is also of note. Following the first 100 days of Donald Trump's presidency, a substantial 74 percent of those surveyed advocate for a tough approach from the Merz government towards the U.S. President, while only 14 percent support a more accommodating stance. This reflects a broader expectation for Merz to assert Germany's position on the global stage.
In the lead-up to this pivotal election, the CDU has also been the subject of scrutiny and introspection, highlighted by the new ZDF docuseries "Inside CDU." This series promises an in-depth look at the inner workings of the party, exploring its strategies and challenges as it seeks to regain the trust of the electorate. The series aims to demystify the party's operations and provide insight into what the CDU stands for in 2025.
Despite the CDU’s recent gains, the political environment remains volatile, with fluctuating party loyalties and the electorate's shifting preferences creating challenges for all parties involved. Recent surveys, including one conducted by Forsa for RTL/ntv, had placed the AfD ahead of the CDU just days prior to the ZDF poll, indicating the unpredictable nature of voter sentiment.
As the election date approaches, the CDU's strategy and Merz's leadership style will be put to the test. The party's ability to address economic concerns while also managing public expectations regarding social issues will be crucial for its success. With the AfD still a formidable opponent, the CDU must navigate these waters carefully to maintain its lead.
In summary, Friedrich Merz's upcoming election as Chancellor marks a significant moment for the CDU and German politics as a whole. With the party currently leading in the polls and a divided public opinion on the new government's potential effectiveness, all eyes will be on Merz as he steps into this critical role. The challenges ahead are substantial, but the CDU appears ready to reclaim its place at the forefront of German governance.
