Recent political surveys in Germany reveal troubling trends for the country's ruling CDU/CSU party, led by Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz. Following a controversial decision to approve a significant financial package that entails taking on high additional debt, public sentiment has shifted dramatically, with many voters feeling deceived. According to the latest ZDF Politbarometer data, an overwhelming 73% of respondents believe that the Union has misled voters regarding this decision, including 44% of CDU/CSU supporters themselves.
Prior to the Bundestag elections in February 2025, Merz had firmly opposed taking on new debt, making this recent policy shift particularly significant. In the wake of the backlash, his approval ratings have plummeted from 44% at the beginning of March to just 37% today. During a recent event in Frankfurt, Merz expressed his acknowledgment of the damage done to his credibility, stating, "I know that I have now taken on a very high credit, also concerning my personal credibility." He indicated a need for careful management of the new funds as the party navigates these troubled waters.
The survey also reveals shifting dynamics in terms of voter preferences for political parties. In the "Sonntagsfrage" - a Sunday question gauging electoral intent - the CDU/CSU retains the largest share, albeit with a decrease to 27%. Conversely, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has gained ground, now polling at 22%, marking an increase of one percentage point. This shift implies a tightening race, with the AfD narrowing the gap to just 3.5 percentage points behind the Union.
This surge for the AfD comes on the heels of a strong performance in the February elections, during which they secured 20.8% of the vote. In a recent Insa poll conducted for Bild, their support has risen to an unprecedented 23.5%, further solidifying their place as a significant political force. The results indicate that without votes accounting for the CSU, the AfD could potentially lead the CDU, which would only muster 21% if considered independently, as noted by Hermann Binkert, director of the polling institution.
Additional insights from these surveys show varying public opinions toward the new financial package. While 64% of respondents support loosening the debt rules for higher defense expenditures, only 50% endorse the plan to incur up to 500 billion euros in debt for infrastructure and climate investment—raising skepticism among fiscal conservatives. Meanwhile, 27% argue that the proposed amount is excessive, and 15% believe no loans should be taken at all.
The political landscape does not appear favorable for forming a stable government coalition under the current circumstances. With CDU and SPD leaders engaged in ongoing coalition negotiations, recent survey outcomes indicate a challenging path to a majority alliance. The possibility of incorporating the AfD remains off the table for mainstream parties, further complicating legislative efforts.
Reflecting broader trends, secondary parties also displayed notable shifts. The SPD has dipped to 16%, the Greens have fallen to 12%, and the Left maintains a steady 10%. Smaller parties like BSW and the FDP continue to struggle, lingering below the critical five-percent threshold.
The inconclusive nature of these survey results serves as a reminder of the fluidity of political allegiances in Germany, with significant implications for future governance. As Merz and the CDU/CSU grapple with the ramifications of their fiscal decisions, the growing appetite for alternative political voices—particularly from the far-right—demands close attention and strategic responses from traditional parties. In a political climate filled with uncertainty, one outcome appears clear: the days ahead may prove pivotal for the fate of the CDU and the broader political coalition that governs Germany.
