The German federal elections held on September 23, 2024, resulted in the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), achieving significant victory with 28.6% of the votes, making them the largest party. Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU, is poised to become the next Chancellor, ensuring a shift away from the lengthy tenure of the Social Democrats (SPD) led by Olaf Scholz, who recognized the election as their worst outcome with only 16.4% of the votes.
Following the CDU/CSU, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured 20.8% of the votes, marking their strongest performance yet and making them the second-largest party—a notable achievement for the party, which has faced criticism for its extreme right-wing stance. Merz has insisted on not forming any coalition with the AfD, indicating his intention to pursue more moderate governance and focus on broader coalition options, primarily with the SPD.
The voter turnout for this election was reported at 84%, the highest since German reunification, with the electoral participation reflecting strong public engagement and sentiment. This substantial turnout can be attributed to intense campaigning and the growing interest among younger voters, who show increasingly varied political preferences.
During the election discussions, Merz highlighted the urgency of strengthening Europe's defense independently from the United States. He stated, "My top priority is to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible, so we can be independent of America on defense matters." His focus aligns with numerous European leaders urging for increased defense budgets to counter global tensions, particularly with the rise of China and the continuing war support for Ukraine.
The high acceptance of the AfD demonstrates the shifting political dynamics within Germany. The party's growth—doubling its support since the previous election—has sparked alarm among mainstream political leaders. Scholz, acknowledging the results, underscored the need for the SPD to maintain its relevance as parties like the AfD gain ground. He declared, "The far-right's success is unacceptable," urging collaboration among parties to reject extreme ideologies.
This election also presented remarkable turnout among first-time voters, many of whom gravitated toward the leftist parties, with approximately 27% supporting the Left Party, alongside significant portions shifting toward the AfD. Analysis from various media outlets suggests there is both enthusiasm and apprehension among younger voters who feel misrepresented by established political parties.
The CDU/CSU now faces the challenge of coalition building, with its leaders expressing readiness to establish government before Easter 2024. Merz noted, "We need to act quickly. The world won’t wait for us," as he aims to solidify his administration amid the nationwide calls for swift governance.
International relations are also poised for change as Merz's leadership is expected to restore Germany's strong position within Europe and globally, with commendations received from other world leaders. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte remarked on social media his eagerness to collaborate with Merz on enhancing European defense initiatives, signifying the anticipated shift toward stronger continental unity.
The outcomes of these elections resonate beyond Germany and reflect broader trends seen across Europe, where populist and right-leaning parties gain traction amid growing discontent with traditional political structures. Scholars and analysts voice concerns about the normalization of far-right politics, inviting discourse on the implications for the European project and the stability of democracies facing these challenges.
With the electoral battle concluded, the CDU/CSU's future government formation will determine the course of Germany’s policies on enduring issues including immigration, economic recovery post-pandemic, and climate commitments. Amidst the rising challenges, both Merz and the potential coalition partners will need to navigate complex political landscapes to govern effectively—factors to keep an eye on as Germany transitions to this new chapter.