The 2025 German federal elections held on February 23 delivered compelling results, signaling significant shifts within the political sphere. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, emerged as the frontrunner, garnering roughly 29% of the votes according to exit polls presented by public broadcasters ARD and ZDF. This result highlights the CDU's return to prominence following years of challenging political circumstances.
Notably, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved its best-ever performance, projecting support of nearly 20%—specifically, estimates ranged from 19.5% to 20%. This marks a dramatic increase compared to their performance of just above 10% during the last elections held in 2021, effectively doubling their voter base and reflecting growing national discontent.
The Social Democrats (SPD), led by the outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, suffered dismal results, coming in third with about 16% of the vote. This loss symbolizes the SPD's steep decline as it faces one of the worst electoral outcomes since the end of World War II, inciting discussions about the future of the party and its leadership.
The election saw an impressive voter turnout of 84%, signaling heightened public engagement amid concerns surrounding safety, immigration, and the economy. The atmosphere was underscored by anxieties resulting from recent violent incidents connected to migrants, which likely contributed to the uptick in support for parties like the AfD, capitalizing on the electorate's fears.
Scholz's inability to resonate with undecided voters during his tenure has raised questions. Public analysts and electoral experts articulate, "C’est une débâcle sans précédent pour le plus vieux parti d'Allemagne depuis la fin de la Deuxième Guerre mondiale." This statement emphasizes the historical significance of the SPD's defeat and marks the urgency for introspection within the party.
On the campaign trail, external factors loomed large as both American political figures and tensions around the Ukraine war influenced the German electorate. Unique to this election, the AfD reportedly garnered support from Washington's political elite, including US Vice President JD Vance and tech billionaire Elon Musk, who publicly endorsed the party's stance. This involvement provoked contrasting reactions, seen by some as foreign interference and received positively by others as endorsement.
Alice Weidel, the AfD's leader, celebrated the election results as unprecedented, stating emphatically, "Nous n’avons jamais été aussi forts au niveau national." Her party’s success reflects shifts among the populace, who prioritize national security and immigration reform, particularly amid fears induced by recent asylum-seeker related attacks. The AfD's platform, strongly advocating for immigration control, resonates with those who feel threatened by social changes stemming from immigration policies adopted over recent decades. Their narrative has substantially influenced public sentiment.
Post-election, the CDU's opportunity to govern requires coalition-building according to traditional German political practices since they have not secured enough seats for solo governance. Discussions are anticipated around forming alliances, likely between the CDU and either the SPD or the Greens—both parties facing significant reevaluations of their strategies following this defeat. Merz has reportedly expressed preferences for proximity to the SPD, considering the hurdles posed by the AfD's rising influence, which he has ruled out for any coalition negotiation.
Cycling back to previous coalitions, observers recall the coalition among the CDU, SPD, and the Greens, which had fallen apart following prolonged tensions and contrasting agendas. This has laid the groundwork for the CDU to possibly revert to alliances reminiscent of those seen during pre-Merkel eras.
Political analysts, like Monika Grimm, argue the pressing necessity for the upcoming government to catalyze investments aimed at boosting the economy. She cautioned, “Il faut absolument augmenter l’investissement et l’avancée technologique pour faire repartir la croissance.” The pressure is mounting for the new coalition to address unemployment and economic precarity, particularly as companies announce substantial job losses amid continued uncertainty.
With the political chess pieces shifting against the backdrop of economic stagnation, the rise of the AfD is bound to influence the new governance structure. With around 130 AfD representatives anticipated for the Bundestag, the balance of power will change, and the necessity for CDU leaders to navigate public expectations will loom heavily over their administration.
The sociopolitical climate, characterized by division, poses challenges to the formation of the next governing body as we witness power dynamics reconvening favorably for right-leaning parties. A complex road lies ahead, one where history suggests the upcoming coalition’s decisions will echo through the future of German politics.