Germany is poised for significant political changes following the results of the federal elections held on February 23, 2025. The preliminary results indicate Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), along with its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), won 28.6% of the vote, solidifying their position as the leading party. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) followed closely with 20.8%, marking its highest electoral success to date, leaving the left-leaning Social Democrats (SPD) at 16.4% and the Greens at 11.6%. The Left Party garnered 8.8%, and the Free Democrats (FDP) fell short at 4.6%, failing to gain parliamentary representation.
According to election officials, this election recorded the highest voter turnout since German reunification at 84%. The results have led to predictions of the revival of the grand coalition, but the SPD's dismal performance poses challenges for its participation as Merz seeks to form a government.
Merz has expressed his intention to initiate coalition negotiations swiftly, targeting the formation of the government by Easter. While the CDU/CSU and the SPD appear to be the most viable coalition option, the SPD’s performance hints at potential internal struggles as they grapple with their worst result ever. Historical data shows the unified vote from the four center parties (CDU/CSU, SPD, Greens, and FDP) has dramatically decreased from nearly 90% in 2002 to just over 60% this election.
The rise of the AfD has created notable political fragmentation. The party's significant gains represent almost 30% of the total votes, reflecting broader shifts within the German electorate toward the far-right and far-left parties. According to political analysts, this marks not only a challenge to traditional parties but also raises concerns about the impacts on Germany's democratic fabric.
Political reactivity was swift. Following his victory, Merz conversed with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who extended congratulations. Despite Netanyahu facing challenges from the International Criminal Court over war crime allegations, Merz emphasized the importance of maintaining diplomatic ties, pushing for future official visits to Germany.
Responses from political leaders across Europe highlighted the broader implications of the election. Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp remarked on the potential end of the post-Berlin Wall era, as Merz's comments about NATO's future suggested shifts away from traditional alliances. Merz stated, “Will we still be talking about NATO... or will we have to establish an independent European defence capability much more quickly?” This perspective underlines the urgency of aligning European defense strategies amid fluctuated US policies under President Donald Trump.
Internally, Germany’s political climate is fraught with tension. The Turkish Community leader criticized the AfD's substantial gains, expressing fears over the party's ability to dictate national discussions and conduct against minority groups. "Many parties... have promised to solve the migration problem — with the aim of pushing the AfD back. This has been a resounding failure," stated leader, urging other political factions to recognize the realities around immigration within the country.
Voter demographics were also pivotal during this election. Young voters favored the Left Party, indicating changing attitudes and priorities among younger generations. Meanwhile, support for the AfD among younger voters reflects its appeal even among those traditionally leaning left. Age groups under 30 showed 21% support for AfD, leaving strategists to speculate about the party’s long-term viability.
Friedrich Merz's platform appears to center on economic revitalization and addressing Germany’s structural stagnation. Commentators expect debates over immigration policies and potential tax cuts to dominate upcoming negotiations, yet they also caution about possible conflicts with the AfD and Left on key economic and social policies.
With the results now confirmed, the incoming government must navigate complex coalitions and strive to maintain order as they reconcile diverse ideologies and ambitions. Potential agreements will likely include investments, particularly centering around infrastructure and defense, as Germany aims to bolster its role within Europe and respond effectively to international pressures.
All signs point to challenging coalition talks, with Merz's CDU actively seeking to prevent the AfD from solidifying its gains and altering the German political narrative permanently. The coming weeks are anticipated to be filled with intense negotiations as party leaders work to address the growing fragmentation within Germany and craft policies reflecting the will of the electorate.
The results of the elections have undoubtedly altered the political paradigm, with Merz now positioned to lead Germany through uncertain times as he balances external relations, domestic concerns, and aspirations for unifying the European community.