The global beer industry, long characterized by steady growth and brand loyalty, is now facing a complex crossroads. Rising costs, shifting consumer habits, and geopolitical turmoil have all collided to reshape the strategies of major brewers. At the heart of this transformation stands Carlsberg, a Danish brewing giant, whose recent maneuvers offer a revealing look into how legacy companies can adapt—or falter—in a rapidly evolving landscape.
Over the past two years, inflationary pressures have hammered the cost structure of brewers worldwide. According to a detailed analysis published by Ainvest on August 15, 2025, the price of essential raw materials like barley and hops has fluctuated wildly, with Ukraine’s role as a key exporter especially disrupted by war. Energy costs have soared, and the price of packaging materials such as aluminum and glass has followed suit. In the U.S., tariffs on imported beer—reaching up to 30% for European Union imports—have further complicated the market, squeezing margins for those with global sourcing dependencies.
Carlsberg’s response to these headwinds has been both aggressive and innovative. The company’s 2023 results, as reported by Ainvest, showed a 9.2% organic revenue growth despite a 0.5% decline in volume. This impressive feat was achieved through a combination of pricing power, operational cost management, and digital transformation. Carlsberg standardized raw materials across markets, optimized procurement, and leveraged SaaS-based inventory systems to reduce waste. Real-time tracking of perishable ingredients has minimized spoilage, allowing the company to align production more closely with actual demand.
Yet, the path to stability is anything but straightforward. Carlsberg’s 2023 divestiture of its Russian operations—once a core market—added complexity to its supply chain. The company had to restructure logistics and renegotiate supplier contracts, but this strategic retreat also freed up resources for investment in high-growth regions like Southeast Asia and Africa. These markets, where demand for premium and regional beers is rising, now represent a critical buffer against stagnating sales in Europe and North America.
Local sourcing is now a cornerstone of Carlsberg’s supply chain strategy. By partnering with farmers in Denmark and Vietnam, the company is building climate-resilient supply chains, reducing dependency on volatile global markets, and advancing sustainability goals. Its regenerative agriculture initiatives, as detailed by Ainvest, aim to cut carbon footprints and ensure a steady supply of high-quality ingredients. These efforts align with a broader industry shift toward ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) metrics, as investors increasingly demand responsible stewardship alongside financial returns.
But perhaps the most striking change is unfolding in the glass itself. The beer market is experiencing a dramatic polarization, with consumers flocking either to high-end premium brands or budget-friendly economy options. As Carlsberg CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen told CNBC on August 15, 2025, “People look either for the premium brand or the economy brand. So what will get squeezed… is actually the core brands in the middle.” The result? Mainstream, mid-tier brands find themselves in a precarious position, caught between two diverging consumer camps.
This shift is reflected in Carlsberg’s own numbers. The company reported a 1.7% drop in organic volumes for the first half of 2025, as detailed by CNBC and Global Drinks Intel. Yet, there is a silver lining: premium beers and non-alcoholic segments grew by 4% and 7% respectively in the same period. This resilience in the premium and alcohol-free categories aligns with a global move toward moderation and health-consciousness, trends that are especially pronounced among millennials and Gen Z.
“Moderation is a theme that’s here to stay,” Aarup-Andersen explained in a June 2025 interview with Bloomberg. Non-alcoholic beers, once a niche curiosity, are now the fastest-growing category, appealing to a broad demographic. Carlsberg’s “Carlsberg 0.0” line, launched in 2023, is a testament to the company’s commitment to capturing this burgeoning market. The technical challenge of producing high-quality, non-alcoholic beer is significant—requiring advanced filtration and vacuum distillation—but the payoff is clear: a 30% sales increase in key markets for NOLO (non-alcoholic and low-alcohol) beverages in 2024, according to Ainvest.
Meanwhile, cost-of-living pressures continue to weigh on consumers, particularly in Europe and Asia. Carlsberg’s half-year results showed organic operating profit growth of 2.3%, with revenue reaching 45.86 billion Danish kroner—just shy of analyst forecasts, as reported by CNBC. The company has responded with modest price hikes, such as those announced in Malaysia starting September 1, 2025, to protect margins amid flat sales (Malay Mail, August 13, 2025). However, former CEO Cees ‘t Hart’s 2023 warning that inflation could impact sales has proven prescient, as price increases risk alienating cost-sensitive drinkers.
Social media sentiment mirrors these trends. Posts on X (formerly Twitter) highlight declining alcohol consumption globally, with German beer production at a 30-year low and Russian alcohol sales dropping 15% from December 2024 to March 2025. In Kenya, excise revenue from beer fell 5.8% in the fiscal year ended June 2025, a consequence of both illegal trade and reduced buying power. These shifts underscore a broader cultural pivot away from traditional drinking habits, especially among younger consumers who increasingly prefer soft drinks or abstain altogether.
Looking ahead, Carlsberg has raised its full-year organic operating profit growth guidance to 3% to 6%, up from 1% to 5%, driven by strong performances in premium and non-alcoholic lines. Still, the CEO remains cautious, forecasting no improvement in consumer environments for the remainder of 2025 due to persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions (Global Drinks Intel, August 14, 2025). In China—a critical market—Carlsberg anticipates another year of decline, compounded by local competition and economic headwinds, as shared in a November 2024 discussion with Just Drinks.
To stay ahead, Carlsberg is doubling down on digital innovation. Its investments in AI-driven demand forecasting and blockchain-based traceability are designed to enhance supply chain agility and transparency. Consumers can now scan a QR code on a beer bottle to trace the barley’s origin, a move that both builds brand trust and satisfies growing demands for transparency.
Carlsberg’s sustainability ambitions are equally bold. The company aims to achieve 100% recyclable or reusable packaging by 2030, a goal that dovetails with regulatory shifts such as the UK’s upcoming Deposit Return Scheme. These efforts are not only environmentally responsible but also increasingly necessary as governments and consumers alike demand greater accountability from major brands.
For investors and industry watchers, Carlsberg’s journey is a case study in strategic resilience. By balancing cost discipline, sustainability, and digital agility, the company is positioning itself to weather short-term storms and capitalize on long-term trends. The beer industry may be slowing in mature markets, but Carlsberg’s push into Asia and Africa, coupled with its embrace of NOLO products and premiumization, offers a roadmap for growth amid uncertainty.
As the industry continues to evolve, Carlsberg’s willingness to adapt—whether through operational innovation, product diversification, or sustainability leadership—will determine not only its own fate but perhaps the future of brewing itself.
