As the papal conclave officially commenced on May 7, 2025, all eyes are on Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican's Secretary of State, who has emerged as the early favorite to succeed Pope Francis. With 133 cardinal electors gathered in the Sistine Chapel, the atmosphere is charged with anticipation as they prepare to cast their votes for the next leader of the Roman Catholic Church.
Before entering the chapel, the cardinals held a special Mass in St. Peter’s Basilica, marking a solemn beginning to the conclave. Following this, they chanted the Litany of the Saints and sang two prayers under Michelangelo's magnificent frescoes. They also sang “Veni, creator Spiritus,” an ancient hymn that has resonated within the Catholic tradition for over a millennium. The cardinals then swore an oath of secrecy, pledging to keep the proceedings confidential until a new pope is elected.
Cardinal Parolin, 70, opened the conclave and is not only presiding over the proceedings but is also considered a strong candidate. He has been instrumental in shaping the Vatican’s global diplomatic strategy over the past decade and is well-known among the cardinal electors, having built relationships through his extensive travels and interactions with church leaders worldwide.
His role as Secretary of State has seen him navigate complex issues, including the Vatican's controversial 2018 agreement with China regarding bishop appointments, which has drawn both criticism and support. Some conservative factions within the Church have expressed concerns about Parolin's past decisions, particularly his diplomatic dealings. However, his supporters argue that his experience and ability to maintain dialogue are invaluable assets.
The first round of voting within the conclave did not yield any white smoke, indicating that no candidate achieved the necessary two-thirds majority. Voting will continue in multiple rounds over the coming days, with the cardinals remaining sequestered until a new pope is chosen. The ballots are burned after each session, with chemicals added to signal whether a decision has been reached.
Parolin's main rivals include Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, who has been described as the “Asian Francis” due to his similar commitments to social justice, and Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Italy, known for his progressive views and strong pastoral work. Other names in contention are Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, and Cardinal Peter Turkson from Ghana, who could make history as the first African pope.
As the conclave unfolds, the role of influential cardinals, often referred to as “kingmakers,” will be crucial in swaying votes. The current climate within the Church is marked by internal divisions, with some factions advocating for a more conservative direction while others push for progressive reforms. The outcome of this conclave will significantly impact the Church's trajectory in the coming years.
In the days leading up to the conclave, tensions were palpable, with some cardinals openly opposing Parolin's candidacy due to his involvement in past controversies. Nevertheless, his deep institutional knowledge and loyalty to Pope Francis’ vision position him as a formidable contender. Many believe that his steady hand is what the Church needs following a decade marked by both progress and backlash.
Betting markets have also taken notice of the conclave, with millions of dollars wagered on the next pope. As of May 7, 2025, Parolin is the odds-on favorite at 30%, while Tagle follows closely at 19%. Other candidates like Zuppi and Pizzaballa hold 12% and 9% odds, respectively. This interest in the papal election reflects a broader global fascination with the future direction of the Catholic Church.
Despite the excitement surrounding the conclave, some church leaders have raised concerns about the implications of wagering on papal elections. Critics argue that it trivializes the significance of the papacy and could encourage irresponsible behavior among bettors. The Catechism of the Catholic Church warns that gambling can become morally unacceptable if it deprives individuals of what is necessary for their needs and those of others.
As the cardinals continue to cast their votes in private, the world watches closely, waiting for the signal of white smoke that will announce the election of a new pope. The next pontiff will inherit a Church at a crossroads, facing declining attendance in Europe, explosive growth in the Global South, and pressing moral questions in a rapidly changing world.
In this pivotal moment, the choice of the next pope will not only shape the future of the Catholic Church but also influence its role in global issues, from social justice to interfaith dialogue, and the Church's response to modern challenges. As the conclave progresses, Vatican watchers expect a decisive moment by the weekend, although no official timeline can ever be guaranteed.
