Canadian families are facing the prospect of significant increases in grocery costs, with the annual Canada Food Price Report anticipating food prices will rise by three to five percent next year. This means, for the average family of four, the cost of food could jump by approximately $801, bringing the total to around $16,833.67 for 2025. Such estimates highlight just how much the rising prices of essentials have become intertwined with daily life for many Canadians, especially considering the projected hikes primarily target staples like meat and vegetables.
The report, now in its 15th iteration, is the result of collaborative efforts among researchers from leading Canadian universities. This year, scientists from the University of Guelph, Dalhousie University, University of British Columbia, and University of Saskatchewan combined their insights to make these projections.
Dr. Graham Taylor, of the University of Guelph's School of Engineering, has been instrumental in forecasting food prices through machine learning for six years. "Our team uses machine learning to build models analyzing historical food price data and various other factors to forecast future prices," explains Taylor.
For the 2025 report, Taylor and his group took advantage of large language models (LLMs) for the first time, employing innovative methods developed by PhD candidate Kristina Kupferschmidt. These LLMs worked as simulated experts, evaluating elements affecting food prices and projecting future costs based on various scenarios.
Researchers assert the key drivers for these price increases include global conflicts, fluctuated exchange rates, and noticeable changes due to climate conditions. Dr. Taylor noted, “There are countless elements impacting food costs. LLMs help us navigate the vast information online and leverage it for more accurate predictions.”
Participants from the University of Guelph's Machine Learning Research Group compared different models to determine the best predictors for various food categories. “The techniques we use evolve yearly as we analyze past reports and their outcomes against our predictions,” says Taylor, emphasizing the importance of adaptability in analytics.
The findings resonate particularly strongly with households already grappling with rising costs across the board due to various economic pressures. These price increases have led to concerns about managing food budgets effectively for families across the country. Kupferschmidt highlighted, "With the current cost of living challenges, many Canadians are feeling strain not simply from food price hikes, but also essentials like housing and utilities.”
Interestingly, the report details geographical variations within Canada. For example, Ontario might see a modest three percent increase, compared to possibly higher rates elsewhere, like Atlantic Canada, which may face more substantial hikes. Kupferschmidt emphasized, “Understanding regional differences can be especially helpful for budgeting.”
Notably, this year's research incorporated student participation, with two undergraduate co-op students actively involved, gaining hands-on experience alongside their academic curriculum. Their roles were supported by the Doody Family Chair Undergraduate Research Assistant Fund for Women in Engineering, aiming to stimulate female participation within engineering disciplines. The students have touted the experience as both rewarding and informative.
Looking forward, the report’s findings may offer practical advice for households as they brace for price hikes. Taylor suggests, “Being aware of these trends allows families to make informed decisions, such as stocking up non-perishables when prices are lower or opting for cost-effective alternatives.”
While the report helps predict coming expenditures, it also acknowledges uncertainties tied to unforeseen factors, including climate events or sudden legislative changes, which could exacerbate costs. Taylor indicated, "Information like ours can help consumers strategize their grocery shopping and stay within budget during turbulent times," underlining the practical use of their research.
To summarize the research collaboration: it's not just about numbers on a page but about illustrating the realities faced by everyday Canadians dealing with food insecurity and heightened living costs. The Canada Food Price Report serves as both a guiding document for consumer behavior and as insight for future economic discussions.
While researchers present significant forecasts for 2025, they also stress the importance of adaptation to the continuous evolution of global economics and societal needs. Whether these predictions hold true or fluctuate with market dynamics, one thing remains certain: the dialogue surrounding food pricing is more urgent than ever as families prepare for future challenges.