On any given day just a year ago, it was common to see dozens of Canadian license plates scattered across parking lots at U.S. border towns and tourist hotspots. But now, a striking shift has taken hold: far fewer Canadians are venturing south of the border, and the numbers tell a story of a tourism relationship under strain.
According to a report released by Statistics Canada on August 21, 2025, Canadian residents made only 1.7 million return trips by motor vehicle from the United States in July, representing a staggering 37 percent drop compared to July 2024. The same report found that returning air travel to Canada from the U.S. also plummeted by approximately 25 percent over the same period. Meanwhile, American air travel to Canada barely budged, ticking up by just 0.7 percent.
This downturn in cross-border tourism is more than a statistical blip. At Bluff Point Golf Resort in Plattsburgh, New York—just a short drive from the Canadian border—owner Paul Dame has witnessed the change firsthand. "It's tough, because we've developed this relationship with the cross-border economy," Dame told NPR. "And now here we are, the rug getting pulled out from underneath us." Where once 20 or 30 Canadian cars would fill his lot, now there are only one or two.
Industry-wide, the numbers echo Dame’s experience. The International Trade Administration reported that between January and May 2025, Canadians made just over 7 million visits to the U.S., marking a nearly 17 percent decrease from the same stretch in 2024. The U.S. Travel Association confirmed to NPR that its “latest view continues to show a decline in travel from Canadian residents to the United States, consistent with the recent Canadian data released.”
Behind these numbers lie deeper currents. The sharp decline in Canadian tourism follows months of deteriorating relations between Washington and Ottawa. Earlier in 2025, President Donald Trump—having returned to the White House—proposed the annexation of Canada and slapped steep tariffs on Canadian goods. The political rhetoric quickly soured what had been a robust, neighborly relationship. According to Salon, the situation has become so tense that some Canadian travel agents are now advising clients to avoid travel to the U.S., particularly after reports surfaced of Canadian tourists being detained by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
The economic implications are significant. In 2024, Canadians made 20.4 million visits to the United States, generating $20.5 billion in tourism revenue and supporting an estimated 140,000 U.S. jobs, according to the U.S. Travel Association. The association warned that a 10 percent decrease in Canadian travel could mean 2 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending, and 14,000 job losses. With the current drop exceeding even that threshold, the ripple effects are being felt from border towns to major tourist destinations.
Some localities are taking matters into their own hands to try to reverse the trend. In June, Maine’s Governor Janet Mills made an official visit to Canada, personally urging Canadians to visit her state. Maine, which welcomed nearly 800,000 Canadian visitors in 2024, even installed new road signs at border crossings that read, “Bienvenue, Canadiens!”—a warm gesture aimed at rekindling cross-border camaraderie.
Yet, the larger forces at play are hard to counteract with goodwill alone. Leah Mueller, vice president of sales and services at Visit Buffalo Niagara, explained to NPR that the decline “is not stopping things from happening, but it is affecting the revenue that people are collecting.” Tour companies, boat operators, and local attractions are all feeling the pinch, as smaller tour groups and emptier boats become the new normal.
Florida, a perennial favorite for Canadian snowbirds and vacationers, is also feeling the effects. According to Visit Florida, the state welcomed 34.435 million visitors between April and June 2025, a slight increase from the same period in 2024. However, Canadian visitors to Florida in the second quarter of 2025 dropped by a dramatic 20 percent to an estimated 640,000 compared to the previous year. The decline is particularly notable given Canadians’ historic importance to Florida’s tourism industry.
Despite this setback, Florida’s overall tourism picture remains relatively bright, buoyed by a surge in domestic and overseas visitors. In the second quarter of 2025, 91.5 percent of Florida’s visitors—31.499 million people—were from within the United States, a slight uptick from the previous year. Overseas visitors also jumped by 11.4 percent, with countries like Brazil contributing to the international surge. Still, the loss of Canadian tourists is a concern, prompting Florida to adjust its marketing strategies and seek growth in other international markets.
The challenges aren’t limited to the U.S. side of the border. Statistics Canada reported that international arrivals to Canada fell by 15.6 percent in July 2025 compared to July 2024, marking six straight months of year-over-year declines. The number of Canadians returning from the U.S. by car dropped 36.9 percent, and air travel decreased by 25.8 percent. These trends reflect broader shifts in Canadian travel patterns, influenced by political tensions, a strong U.S. dollar, and changing consumer preferences.
Florida’s tourism officials are responding with a mix of caution and optimism. The state’s overall visitor numbers for the first half of 2025 were estimated at 75.394 million, slightly lower than the 75.509 million recorded during the same period in 2024. Visit Florida revised its first-quarter 2025 visitor estimate downward from 41.193 million to 40.959 million, reflecting the uncertain landscape. Nevertheless, Florida has maintained its $80 million tourism marketing budget for 2025-2026, signaling a commitment to both domestic and international outreach.
For business owners like Paul Dame, the hope is that the diplomatic chill will eventually thaw. “It’s a very personal situation. They’ve been attacked personally, and it’s emotional,” he said of his Canadian customers. “It’s something that we would react [to] the same way if the opposite was happening to us.”
As U.S. and Canadian officials weigh their next moves, the future of cross-border tourism hangs in the balance. For now, the empty parking lots and quieter attractions serve as a stark reminder of just how quickly longstanding travel traditions can unravel in the face of political headwinds.
