In recent months, Canadian airlines have drastically reduced their flight routes to the United States, driven by a significant drop in travel demand, rising diplomatic tensions, and shifting consumer preferences. Major carriers such as Air Canada, WestJet, Porter, and Flair are slashing routes to key U.S. cities including San Francisco, Miami, New York, and Washington, reflecting the ongoing challenges facing cross-border travel.
According to data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), crossings at the northern border saw a decline of 12.5% in February and an even steeper 18% in March 2025. This trend highlights a sustained contraction in cross-border movement, echoing concerns among Canadian travelers regarding strict U.S. border enforcement and political rhetoric that has increasingly portrayed Canada as the "51st state."
Adding to this troubling picture, a report from Flight Centre Travel Group Canada revealed that business travel from Canada to the U.S. plummeted by 40% in the early months of 2025. The U.S. Travel Association warns that even a 10% drop in Canadian tourism could cost the U.S. economy over $2.1 billion and lead to the loss of more than 140,000 jobs, with the actual decline already exceeding these projections.
In light of these developments, Air Canada has taken significant steps to scale back its U.S. operations. Initially, the airline had ramped up transborder service in 2024, including frequent flights between Montréal–Trudeau International Airport (YUL) and San Francisco International Airport (SFO), with up to three daily rotations during peak summer months. However, due to reduced demand, the airline will revert to a single daily flight, cutting previously scheduled frequencies.
Mark Galardo, Air Canada’s Executive Vice President of Revenue and Network Planning, stated that the airline is proactively "moving capacity into other sectors where we see strength," indicating a shift in focus towards more lucrative markets such as Europe. This shift is echoed by WestJet, which has also made decisive cuts to its U.S. schedule, including the cancellation of its planned Vancouver–Austin route, which was set to launch in May 2025, citing a "downward shift in demand." WestJet has also canceled routes from Calgary to New York-LaGuardia and from Edmonton to Orlando.
Porter Airlines, a growing player in Canada’s mid-size market, has implemented "targeted frequency reductions" on select U.S. routes due to softening demand. Despite these cuts, Porter’s overall Canada–U.S. capacity remains 25% higher than last year, reflecting the airline’s continued interest in maintaining strategic corridors even as broader retrenchments occur.
Flair Airlines, Canada’s low-cost carrier, has reduced more than a third of its U.S. flights in response to what executives describe as a significant drop in bookings. The airline is redirecting its operations toward more stable domestic and international markets, acknowledging that the United States was once a key target for affordable getaway options.
While airlines are scaling back their U.S. routes, they are simultaneously expanding their operations to Europe, where demand remains strong and political conditions are more favorable. Air Canada has announced additional frequencies and new seasonal routes to major European destinations, including Paris, Rome, and Frankfurt. Similarly, WestJet has expanded its transatlantic operations with new service to London Gatwick and Dublin, anticipating stronger seasonal demand.
The shift in focus from U.S. routes to European destinations reflects what many analysts are calling a "transatlantic rebalancing." Airlines are reallocating limited fleet resources to higher-yield, lower-friction travel corridors, which are seen as more stable and profitable. This trend is further supported by a report from Tourism Economics, which predicts a 15.2% decline in international visitors to the U.S. in 2025. Arrivals from key European markets such as Germany and Spain have already seen significant drops, down 30% and 25%, respectively, in March.
On April 27, 2025, President Donald Trump dismissed concerns regarding the tourism slowdown, stating that there is "a little nationalism" but it is ultimately "not a big deal." Just two days later, during an ABC interview, he claimed that "tourism is way up," a statement that was fact-checked and corrected live on air by Senior National Correspondent Terry Moran.
The Canadian government has responded to these challenges by updating travel advisories, cautioning citizens about the "strict enforcement" at U.S. borders and warning of increased scrutiny of electronic devices. Similar advisories have been issued by several European nations, including France, Belgium, Finland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom, reinforcing the perception of heightened tension and risk when entering the United States.
The impact of these changes is already being felt in cities that have traditionally benefited from steady Canadian visitor traffic. San Francisco, Miami, New York, Orlando, Houston, and Washington are experiencing fewer arrivals, empty hotel rooms, and reduced spending in restaurants, attractions, and retail. U.S. carriers that once enjoyed strong demand from Canadian cities are now seeing softer load factors on incoming flights.
Beyond the economic implications, the psychological impact of this travel freeze is palpable. Many Canadian travelers cite discomfort with political instability and unpredictable border interactions as reasons for deferring U.S. trips. In contrast, Europe is perceived as safer and more welcoming, particularly for leisure travel, with efficient entry policies and strong tourism recovery plans making it an attractive option for Canadian travelers.
As Canadian airlines adjust their routes and strategies, they are signaling a new era in international air travel, one that prioritizes stability and growth in markets that are more receptive to travelers. Unless political relations improve and traveler confidence is restored, the landscape of Canada–U.S. air travel may not return to its previous highs anytime soon. In the meantime, Europe stands to benefit from this realignment as Canadian carriers tap into surging demand across the Atlantic.
