Canada is reassessing its commitment to procure F-35 fighter jets from Lockheed Martin, as newly sworn-in Prime Minister Mark Carney navigates rising tensions with the United States under President Donald Trump. The C$19 billion (US$13.2 billion) agreement for 88 jets, finalized last year, is under scrutiny amid concerns over the defense relationship and economic pressures stemming from Trump's aggressive policies.
On March 14, 2025, just hours after being inaugurated, Carney instructed Defense Minister Bill Blair to examine the existing contract and its potential alternatives. The prime minister's request aims to determine if the deal, which commits Canada to purchase F-35s to replace its aging air fleet, remains the most beneficial choice for the country. A defense ministry representative noted, "We need to do our homework... to make sure the contract is...in the best interests of Canadians and the Canadian Armed Forces." This evaluation highlights Canada's desire to rethink military spending priorities, especially considering Carney's previous remarks during the Liberal Party leadership race where he emphasized redirecting military funds from US defense contracts to domestic investments.
The contract, signed with Lockheed Martin, has already seen funds allocated for the first batch of 16 jets, which are scheduled for delivery in early 2026. Lockheed expressed its commitment to maintaining strong ties with the Royal Canadian Air Force, asserting the F-35 is the most advanced fighter aircraft available.
Canada finds itself under increasing pressure to meet NATO's spending target, which requires member nations to contribute at least 2% of their GDP to defense. Trump's criticisms of Canada's defense spending and integration with US military contracts have intensified discussions within the Canadian government. Amid these concerns, it has become apparent one of Carney's main objectives is to bolster national defense expenditures by focusing on domestic production capabilities.
Saab, the Swedish aerospace giant, had previously proposed manufacturing its Gripen E fighters within Canada, presenting an advantageous proposition amid the current geopolitical uncertainty. Since January 2025, Saab shares have soared by 72%, reflecting market confidence in alternative defense options outside of American contractors.
Interestingly, Canada is not the only nation reassessing its defense procurement. Over the last week, Portugal has also indicated its reevaluation of purchasing F-35 jets from the U.S. Minister Nuno Melo voiced concerns about the "predictability of our allies" and addressed the shifting United States position within NATO. This development is indicative of broader trepidations among U.S. allies about the reliability of American defense commitments.
The review of the F-35 contract marks one of the first significant policy shifts by Prime Minister Carney since he took office. Observations of the tariff conflict with the U.S. have deepened apprehension among Canadian policymakers, prompting discussions of whether reliance on U.S. defense contracts remains viable. Just prior to Carney's assumption of office, Trump raised tensions by implementing tariffs on Canadian products, which has resulted in economic strain between the two nations.
While the Canadian government has not canceled the F-35 contract, the scrutiny arises at a pivotal moment, emphasizing the need for alignment with Canada’s defense needs as well as strategic autonomy from U.S. influence. Observers suggest this review could be pivotal for the future of Canada’s national defense strategy, allowing Carney’s administration to cultivate stronger defense capabilities and collaborations domestically.
Canada’s defense procurement strategies may set the tone for future engagements with the U.S. as well as other global allies. The reevaluation process, particularly with geopolitical dynamics shifting rapidly, encourages not only Canada but also other nations like Portugal to reassess their military needs and dependencies on U.S. defense firms.
Analysts believe the outcome of Canada’s review could precipitate more significant changes within NATO, especially if other countries choose to act similarly to navigate the uncertain political climate with the U.S. adminsteration. Canada stands at the crossroads of ensuring a secure defense posture and fostering international relationships, making this evaluation all the more consequential.
With pressures from the Trump administration on trade and tariffs still fresh, Carney's assessment of the F-35 purchase signals Canada's intention to prioritize its defense strategies, potentially leading to lasting changes not only for its military capabilities but also for its role within the NATO alliance and beyond.