The rising costs of building homes in high-risk areas across Canada are prompting calls for urgent action as the Institute of Climate Canada (ICC) warns of potential financial repercussions stemming from climate change impacts.
According to the ICC's recent report, the continuation of residential construction in flood-prone and wildfire-vulnerable regions could cost the country billions. Currently estimated at nearly $5 billion annually, these costs could soar to $8 billion if existing construction regulations remain unchanged. This makes the conversation surrounding the need for new housing — driven by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) goal of delivering 5.8 million homes by 2030 — all the more pressing.
The ICC warns of significant growth projected within these high-risk zones. Their models predict up to 540,000 homes could be built within areas susceptible to flooding and approximately 220,000 within regions at high risk for wildfires within the next decade, should no substantial policy changes occur. The report states emphatically, "Building new homes in vulnerable zones would be incredibly costly."
One of the most alarming aspects highlighted by the ICC is the lack of reliable flood and wildfire mapping. The outdated nature of these maps contributes to uncertainties faced by developers, municipalities, and homeowners alike. Ryan Ness, Director of Research on Adaptation at the ICC, remarked, "The most affordable housing is the one not rebuilt after disaster," underscoring the financial burdens and risks associated with constructing homes where the hazards are evidently present.
The ICC suggests, “without urgent measures, our communities face major risks” as they strive to meet housing demands without adequately considering safety from natural disasters. This includes reviewing governmental aid programs which, instead of discouraging risky construction, may inadvertently encourage more housing developments within these danger zones.
Through their research, the ICC has identified potential strategies to mitigate these risks, positing the remarkable possibility of preventing up to 80% of anticipated financial losses by simply shifting 3% of future housing developments to safer areas. This assessment painted optimism amid urgency; the organizations involved can tackle this growing issue without sacrificing the demand for new homes.
Echoing this sentiment, Rick Smith, President of the Institute of Climate Canada, emphasized the report’s findings as the first to detail the costs affiliated with residential development amid such climate risks. "It's urgent for provincial governments, especially Quebec, to adopt reliable policies swiftly to steer new developments to safe zones," he argues.
New initiatives are already on the horizon. Quebec's upcoming regulatory framework expects to enforce stricter guidelines, mapping updates, and limitations on developments within high-risk flood areas. The provincial government is set to introduce measures forbidding new construction in the most vulnerable regions, which is heralded as necessary to protect communities and reduce potential future expenditures significantly.
The variation of risk tolerance witnesses differing strategies across Canada; for example, provinces like Ontario already limit construction within areas with 100-year flood recurrence intervals, showcasing the importance of proactive policy-making to mitigate housing development risks.
Alain Webster, President of the Quebec Advisory Committee on Climate Change, reacted to the report's findings stating, "Continuing to build homes as we have leads our communities to danger and results in significant costs across the entire population. It’s urgent to implement tough and sustainable policies to guide new construction toward safe zones."
With these advances, the coalition of jurisdictions and housing entities has the opportunity to switch course from merely rebuilding after harsh climate events to preventing them altogether, potentially saving billions and fostering resilient communities capable of withstanding the challenges posed by climate change.