Canada is at a crossroads, contemplating closer ties with the European Union (EU) as its relationship with the United States grows increasingly strained. Amid the rhetoric from American leaders, including former President Donald Trump, who has referred to Canada as the "51st state" of the U.S., Canadian politicians are quietly debating the prospect of Canada's accession to the EU.
This notion gained attention recently following commentary on the public broadcaster CBC, where John Last posed the question: "What if Canada joined the European Union?" The idea is not entirely new; as the economic and political anxieties surrounding U.S. relations continue to simmer, some Canadian politicians and thinkers see the inherent benefits of forging stronger ties across the Atlantic.
Thomas Lukaszuk, former Alberta vice-premier, noted the shift toward European affinity by stating, "Relations between Canada and the U.S. are under serious pressure—and it has prompted some commentators to propose improbable solutions. But what if Canada were to forge stronger ties or even join the EU?" This sentiment echoes the earlier arguments by Stanley Pignal, who wrote about the importance of both Europe and Canada updating their alliances amid the changing global order.
Indeed, the diplomatic relationship between Canada and the United States has deteriorated, with Trump asserting on his social media platform Truth Social, "Canada cannot survive as a country capable of thriving without U.S. subsidies." While he cites significant trade surpluses, critics point to the reality of Canadian oil exports being sold at lower prices than the global market, resulting in substantial deficits when excluding these trade figures.
Lukaszuk posits, "Canada could find some formula for incomplete EU membership, perhaps pursuing initial economic partnerships and mobility treaties." He highlights existing frameworks like CETA, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between Canada and the EU, which facilitate trade and investment possibilities. He adds, "We already have visa-free movement with most EU countries, and there are areas where Canada is well-positioned, such as artificial intelligence or military production. Strengthening cooperation with Poland, as part of the EU, could prove highly fruitful."
Trudeau's recent discussions with Donald Tusk, during Trudeau's visit to Poland, have been pointed to as positive signs of increasing diplomatic overtures toward European allies. Lukaszuk believes, "Canada will emerge from the shadows due to U.S. decisions," and he sees this as an opportunity for Poland to intensify its diplomatic efforts and economic cooperation with Canada.
Reflecting on the sentiments of ordinary Canadians, Lukaszuk observed, "Canadians feel betrayed as there are no two countries more friendly than Canada and the U.S. The shifting dynamics leave us bewildered; yet, recognizing these feelings can reveal significant potential for change." These feelings are compounded by perceptions of shared values between Canadians and their European counterparts, with "The Economist" recently referring to Canadians as "honorary Europeans," underlining the common interests and historical connections.
The conversation around Canada's potential EU aspirations goes beyond mere politics; it taps deeply on social and institutional ties. Many Canadian political and legal frameworks mirror those of European nations, and over half of Canadians claim European ancestry. Still, it raises questions about legal definitions of Europeanness, as CBC pointed out—"Any European country can apply to the EU, but no specific definitions or restrictions exist on what constitutes as such."
While experts caution against the likelihood of full Canadian EU membership, they note there exists the possibility of establishing relationships based on the concept of "European neighborhood," which may extend beyond standard trade agreements, similar to the EU's engagement with Tunisia and other states.
This was evidenced during discussions between Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen earlier this year, outlining close cooperation intended to promote economic security across the Atlantic. A press statement post-discussion highlighted their commitment: "We aim to strengthen economic ties between our nations, centered around mutual respect and shared interests."
Canada's future interactions with the EU promise to be complex yet full of potential, especially as Canada strives to redefine its identity on the global stage amid uncertain relations with the U.S. The quest for enhanced partnership could just be the beginning of transforming the ties between Canada and Europe.