Canada is facing a fundamental crossroads in its economic history, as Prime Minister Mark Carney has declared that the country can no longer rely on its long-standing trade relationship with the United States. In a series of speeches and public appearances leading up to the release of his government’s budget on November 4, 2025, Carney has outlined an ambitious new strategy aimed at doubling Canada’s non-U.S. exports by 2035, a move he says is necessary to safeguard the nation’s prosperity in the face of shifting global dynamics.
For decades, Canada’s economy has been tightly interwoven with that of its southern neighbor. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, in 2024, Canada was the top destination for U.S. exports and the third-largest source of U.S. imports. More than three-quarters of Canadian goods were sent to the U.S., and nearly half of its imports came from American suppliers. This deep integration was cemented through a series of trade agreements, from the 1989 Canada–U.S. Free Trade Agreement to NAFTA in 1994, and more recently, the USMCA in 2020, which is up for review by Congress in 2026.
But Carney, speaking ahead of his government’s crucial budget announcement, warned that this era of close economic ties has reached its end. "The United States has fundamentally changed its approach to trade, raising its tariffs to levels last seen during the Great Depression," Carney said, as reported by The Canadian Press. He argued that the scale and speed of these changes mean Canada’s reliance on a single foreign partner is now a vulnerability rather than a strength. "Many of our former strengths—based on close ties to America—have become our vulnerabilities," he added.
Carney’s comments came just days after a high-profile meeting with President Donald Trump at the White House, where the leaders discussed bilateral trade, foreign affairs, and border security. The mood was candid but cordial. Trump, for his part, described the ongoing negotiations as complex, saying, "More complicated, maybe, than any other agreement we have on trade because we have natural conflict. We also have mutual love." He added, "The problem we have is that they want a car company, and I want a car company. They want steel, and we want steel...in other countries, they're very far away and there's no problem. You can compete. We don't like to compete because we sort of hurt each other when we compete. It's a natural business conflict. Nothing wrong with it. I think we've come a long way over the last few months, actually, in terms of that relationship."
With the U.S. raising trade barriers and the future of the USMCA uncertain, Carney has set his sights on diversifying Canada’s export markets. On October 22, 2025, he announced an “ambitious” goal: to double non-U.S. exports over the next decade and unlock $300 billion in new trade. The plan centers on building up infrastructure and tapping into the country’s vast natural resources, particularly critical minerals found in Ontario’s Ring of Fire region.
“Part of those strategies that are consistent with the goal are new energy and trade corridors,” Carney said at a news conference in Bowmanville, Ontario, according to The Canadian Press. He highlighted federal support for port development, citing projects like Grays Bay in Nunavut and the expansion of the Port of Montreal. “You'll see more on that,” he promised. “Then, what are we exporting more of? It can be critical minerals from the Ring of Fire and building that up. We're working closely in terms of unlocking that enormous potential.”
Standing beside Carney was Ontario Premier Doug Ford, a vocal advocate for the rapid development of the Ring of Fire mining project. The region is believed to hold vast reserves of nickel, cobalt, and other minerals essential for electric vehicles and clean energy technologies. Ford has pushed for speedy approval and investment to ensure Ontario—and Canada—can seize a pivotal role in the global supply chain for these resources.
However, not everyone is convinced that Carney’s plan is the right path forward. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre expressed skepticism about the feasibility of doubling non-U.S. exports without a more aggressive approach to oil and gas. “Our single biggest net export, by far, is oil and gas. And the only way you get oil and gas to non-U.S. markets is to get pipelines to tidewater,” Poilievre told reporters on Parliament Hill. He criticized Carney for not clearly supporting new pipelines, saying, “I don't know, other than pixie dust, what he expects to export overseas if he's going to block the major infrastructure projects that are necessary to get our most valuable resources to the biggest and most lucrative non-American markets.”
Poilievre also took aim at the government’s regulatory policies, arguing that recent laws passed by the previous Liberal government have made it harder to boost high-value exports. He called on Carney to repeal these laws and fast-track major projects that would enable Canada to capitalize on its resource wealth.
Carney, for his part, has signaled support for ramping up liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and promised that his government is “just getting started” on getting major industrial projects built. He pledged to announce, by November 10, a list of new large-scale projects that Ottawa will fast-track through permitting approvals. The goal, he said, is to spur “unprecedented” levels of private sector investment and unleash a building spree that will transform Canada’s economic landscape.
Yet Carney has also cautioned that such a transformation will require tough choices. In a speech in Ottawa, he warned of “sacrifices” and trade-offs ahead, hinting that the government will need to “do less of some of the things we want to do, so we can do more of what we must do to build a bigger, better Canada.” When pressed by reporters for details, Carney demurred: “Why don't I not scoop the budget and we'll let it come out through the budget.” He was quick to reassure Canadians, however, that existing social supports for vulnerable populations—such as health transfers to provinces and child care support—would be maintained.
As the November 4 budget approaches, political tensions are rising. The Liberal party, a few seats shy of a majority in Parliament, will need support from other parties to pass the budget. The party’s House leader has publicly worried about whether the opposition will allow the budget to pass, underscoring the high stakes for Carney’s economic agenda.
With the U.S. turning inward and global competition intensifying, Canada’s leaders are betting that bold infrastructure investments, resource development, and trade diversification will secure the country’s prosperity for decades to come. The next few weeks will reveal whether Carney’s vision can unite Parliament—and the country—behind a new economic future.
