Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to trigger the process for an early parliamentary election this weekend, with a vote set for April 28, amid a backdrop of heightened tensions caused by U.S. President Donald Trump. The election will unfold during a trade war that has seen Canadians respond by canceling trips to the U.S. and steering clear of American goods, a move that resonates with the surge of Canadian nationalism influencing the polling landscape.
The recent political climate has shifted remarkably since Trump's threat to make Canada the 51st U.S. state, an unsettling proposition that has infuriated the Canadian public. According to an anonymous government official, Carney will visit Governor-General Mary Simon on March 23 to request the dissolution of Parliament—a standard procedure that is expected to be officially approved. Following that, a roughly five-week election campaign leads into the anticipated vote.
The electoral environment appears to be dramatically different from what was forecast in 2025. Earlier this year, the governing Liberals seemed on the brink of historical defeat, hampered by declining popularity attributed to rising food and housing prices, as well as an increase in immigration under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's tenure. However, the ascension of Carney—who became Canada’s 24th prime minister on March 14—has changed the political dynamic. Polls are currently showing support for the Liberals bolstered by rising nationalism, thanks largely to Trump's controversial remarks.
The upcoming election campaign will see Canadians elect all 338 members of the House of Commons, where the candidate with the highest votes in each constituency wins—regardless of whether they command an outright majority. This often consolidates political power among the larger parties, specifically the Liberals and Conservatives, while smaller parties struggle to secure representation.
Mark Carney, 60, steps into this election framed as a capable leader capable of navigating crises, having previously run the Bank of Canada and subsequently the Bank of England. “In this time of crisis, we need a strong and clear mandate,” Carney stated earlier this week. Despite being poised for a fight, Carney has yet to converse directly with Trump, although he has indicated his willingness to meet if there’s mutual respect for Canadian sovereignty.
The main rival for the Liberals is Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, 45, whose party had initially set sights on a sweeping victory earlier in the electoral cycle. Poilievre is known for his populist rhetoric and has pledged to prioritize “Canada first” while calling into question mainstream media narratives. He recently stated, “President Trump’s tariffs and his rhetoric about Canada becoming the 51st state have clearly helped the Liberals in the polls while putting the Conservatives in an odd position.” Political analysts suggest that the current political landscape presents a complicated scenario, where Poilievre must balance appeals to both party loyalty and pragmatic leadership.
On another front, the Green Party has also made waves with a new face in the lead—co-leader Jonathan Pedneault, who will carry the party’s banner into the national debate. Pedneault, who returned to co-leadership earlier this year alongside Elizabeth May, previously took a step back for personal reasons in 2024 but was welcomed back with open arms. At 34, he is the youngest candidate in the political debates, bringing enthusiasm and vigor as he positions himself against older counterparts.
Pedeault expressed excitement in being part of the national conversation, stating, “I’m really excited to finally get out there and compete with our opponents as to what the best vision for the future of Canada actually is.” The Green Party has garnered 260 candidates to run, a healthy roster indicative of their preparedness, yet their polling numbers remain stagnant at three to four percent—a worrying sign that lower interest in climate change may hinder their electability.
Amid a landscape where public concern is focused on the cost of living and U.S. policies under Trump, climate change as an electoral issue has faded in priority for many voters. According to a recent Abacus poll, only five percent recognized climate change as their primary voting consideration. Pedneault underscored the need for the Greens to maintain at least two percent of the national vote to secure their party’s longevity, “The last thing we want is to simply disappear from the face of the Earth.”His words shine a light on the party's precarious standing in the electoral framework.
Within this backdrop, the Green Party has attempted to engage in discussions regarding electoral cooperation with other progressive parties, namely the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc Québécois, aiming to mitigate the fragmentation of the progressive vote that often benefits the Conservatives. Despite reaching out for meetings, Pedneault reports that responses have yet to materialize amidst the shifting political terrain. One analyst, Éric Grenier, remarked that the potential for intra-party cooperation, especially when Liberals are positioned to win, may face resistance.
In the heart of Montreal, where Pedneault is contesting in the Outremont riding—a challenge as his opponent currently commands over 40% of local votes—he faces an uphill battle to make an impactful statement. Pedneault shares a vision where Canadians can vote freely, “This election is not about us…but about the future of this country,” he reiterated while navigating the political complexities that lie ahead. His future, alongside the potential outcomes of Carney's leadership and Poilievre's campaign drive, could redefine Canadian politics for years to come.
The fuse has been lit for an intense election cycle that not only shapes the future of Canadian governance but also reflects the changing attitudes in a country responding to an increasingly complex international background. With polling data continuously evolving, candidates from all parties prepare for a showdown that promises to engage and excite the Canadian electorate.
