French politics is once again at the forefront of discussion as new Prime Minister, François Bayrou, embarks on the challenging task of gathering support from various political factions following his appointment after Michel Barnier's resignation. Starting his consultations on Monday, Bayrou will meet representatives from the main political parties at Matignon, the prime minister's official residence.
Notably, the schedule for consultations is organized according to the numerical strength of the parties represented at the National Assembly. First to meet Bayrou will be Jordan Bardella, President of the Rassemblement National, along with the party's historical leader, Marine Le Pen. Le Pen, who did not hold back her criticism, called the appointment of Bayrou as the head of the centrist government, "a méprisable coalition des contraires," emphasizing her disdain for the coalition's formation.
Despite this, she tempered her remarks with the acknowledgment of pragmatic politics, stating, "Nous ne censurerons pas le nouveau gouvernement 'a priori'", which translates to not censoring the new government upfront. This statement hints at the reluctant acceptance of the political reality by one of France's leading right-wing parties.
Following Bardella and Le Pen, Bayrou is set to host consultations with Gabriel Attal, President of the Renaissance party—an unwavering ally of President Emmanuel Macron. The Prime Minister will also engage with Olivier Faure, First Secretary of the Parti Socialiste, along with other significant figures from the left.
Laurent Wauquiez, head of the mainstream right Les Républicains, stands out with his conditional stance on supporting Bayrou's government. He has made it clear his party's backing will hinge on the proposed projects laid out by Bayrou, indicating negotiations are anticipated.
Interestingly, not all parties are welcoming of the new Prime Minister's overtures. The far-left political block, La France Insoumise, has outright declined the invitation extended by Bayrou. The party leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of these discussions, fearing they might devolve again "into a comedy," reflecting his longstanding mistrust of the political process.
While consultations are expected to create openings for dialogue among various political factions, there is no avoiding the elephant in the room—budgetary concerns. The 2025 budget is particularly sensitive as it directly contributed to Barnier's fall from power after he tried to push through contentious economic measures via Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows the government to pass legislation without Parliamentary approval under certain circumstances.
Notably, the controversial budget proposal included severe staffing cuts, with plans to reduce France Travail's personnel by 500 full-time equivalents next year—a development met with harsh criticism and public disdain. The demise of Barnier’s government spotlighted the fragility of political alliances when it came to fiscal policy, with extremes on both sides of the aisle uniting to express distrust.
On Monday, alongside the budget discussions, members of France Travail participated in strike actions voicing their dissatisfaction over employment conditions, scope of work, and inadequate salary provisions. Union representatives, such as Natalia Jourdin from DSC FO, highlighted the existing work overload and unfavorable exercising conditions, stating, "Cela ne règle pas tout le problème : les personnels restent surchargés de travail."
Despite the government announcing raises of 1.75%, these measures are only applicable to private sector employees, raising concerns among public agents who feel overlooked. Unions are clamoring for comprehensive salary increases, setting their demands at no less than 250 euros net per month retroactively effective from January 1, 2024.
Bayrou’s combative discussions with political leaders set the stage for potential reforms, balancing the contentious negotiation between addressing these pressing public sector concerns and ensuring fiscal stability. This upcoming phase for the French government will require not only political deftness but also public support to navigate through what promises to be tumultuous upcoming months.
Given the current discontent echoed across various sectors, the challenge remains monumental. Whether François Bayrou can successfully lead this new coalition government and avert the political misfortunes of his predecessor is yet to be seen. The forthcoming legislative session will be closely examined, as the outcome could dictate the direction of French politics for the foreseeable future.
