Roberto Campos Neto, the outgoing president of Brazil's Banco Central, held his final press conference on December 19, 2024, reflecting on his years of service and the significant transition of power to his successor, Gabriel Galípolo. This event marks not only the end of Campos Neto's term but also the beginning of Galípolo's leadership amid economic challenges facing the country.
During the final address, Campos Neto spoke candidly about the weight of the decisions made by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) during his last meetings. He indicated, "Essa foi a tônica das últimas duas reuniões. Quero dizer que o peso dele foi sendo cada vez maior do que o meu até culminar na última reunião. Nós entendíamos que isso facilitava a passagem de bastão" (Translation: "This was the tone of the last two meetings. I want to say his [Galípolo's] weight was increasingly greater than mine up until the last meeting. We understood this would facilitate the baton pass"), reported by CartaCapital.
The transition has been described as smooth, partly due to Campos Neto's acknowledgments of the need for Galípolo to play a considerable role as he assumes leadership of the Banco Central. "Na verdade, foi uma transição entre amigos e ele foi muito generoso ao longo desse processo de passagem de bastão" (Translation: "Actually, it was a transition among friends, and he was very generous throughout this baton-passing process"), Galípolo stated during the conference.
Having served since his appointment by former President Jair Bolsonaro, Campos Neto faced scrutiny over his ability to maintain inflation within the target range. Amidst his final remarks, he stressed the importance of the Central Bank's autonomy from political pressures, highlighting the professional and technical approach he took during his presidency.
The Banco Central has forecasted inflation to exceed the government's target of 4.5%, attributing part of this increase to external economic shocks and increased domestic demand. Analyzing the current economic situation, Galípolo explained, "O Banco Central não deixou espaço para tergiversação para atingir a meta" (Translation: "The Central Bank did not leave room for evasion to achieve the goal"), supporting the continuity of policies aimed at stabilizing prices.
Fields like inflation and currency exchange rates have pivoted dramatically during Campos Neto's administration. With the dollar rising rapidly, Campos Neto affirmed the Central Bank's commitment to manage and monitor currency flows diligently through this transition. The outgoing president mentioned, "O mercado não é a Faria Lima" (Translation: "The market is not Faria Lima"), attempting to demonstrate to the public the diverse nature of market participants and their relationships with monetary policy.
The leadership change is poised to influence Brazil's economic direction as Galípolo plans to implement strategies to align closer with the inflation target. Fields of approach highlighted during the conference include balancing the high Selic rate, currently at 12.25%, to curb inflation pressures, with indications for potential future increases.
Reflecting on the collaborative nature of his exit, Campos Neto expressed gratitude toward the Banco Central staff, stating his belief in the institution’s resilience. He acknowledged the importance of accessible communication with the market, making significant decisions based on comprehensive analyses rather than speculative moves.
Looking forward, both Campos Neto and Galípolo emphasized the continued commitment of the Banco Central to uphold its mandates with independence and integrity. The transition, characterized by mutual respect and admiration, serves as a promising indication of potential stability as Galípolo takes over on January 1, 2025.
While the economic challenges remain pressing, the consensus appears to be one of preparedness and confidence going forward. "Acho que as decisões do Copom provam isso" (Translation: "I think the Copom decisions prove this"), Campos Neto asserted, framing the last years of his presidency within the broader narrative of Brazil's monetary evolution.
