The simmering tensions between Thailand and Cambodia have escalated into a significant diplomatic and economic standoff, prompting urgent warnings and strategic responses from both governments and their citizens. On June 22, 2025, Cambodian Prime Minister Gen. Hun Manet announced a decisive move to halt all imports of fuel and gas from Thailand starting at midnight, signaling a new phase in the already strained relations between the neighboring countries.
According to a Facebook post by Gen. Hun Manet, Cambodian fuel distributors possess the capability to source fuel and gas from alternative suppliers sufficiently to meet domestic demand. He emphasized that even if this suspension lasts just a month, it should not pose a problem for Cambodia's energy needs. The announcement was further amplified when Hun Sen, the President of the Cambodian Senate, shared the post, underscoring the government's unified stance.
This move comes amid growing concerns over the safety and security of Thai citizens living in Cambodia. The Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an official advisory urging Thai nationals residing in Cambodia to exercise heightened caution in their daily activities, avoid gathering in crowds or risky areas, and closely monitor the evolving situation. The ministry also advised adherence to guidance from the Royal Thai Embassy in Phnom Penh and the Royal Thai Consulate General in Siem Reap, providing emergency contact numbers for immediate assistance.
The tensions have not only affected the diplomatic sphere but also ripple through economic ties that have historically been robust. The Thai-Cambodian Business Council reported that approximately 100 Thai businesses operate in Cambodia, collectively investing over 50 billion baht (roughly 1.5 billion US dollars). Thailand ranks as the ninth-largest foreign investor in Cambodia, with investments totaling about 1.1 billion US dollars in the past year alone.
Trade between the two nations reached a historic peak last year, exceeding 10 billion US dollars. However, this trade is heavily skewed, with over 90% comprising Cambodian imports of Thai goods, resulting in a significant trade surplus favoring Thailand. Among the key imports from Thailand are finished petroleum products and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which have become vital commodities for Cambodia. Prime Minister Hun Sen specifically referenced the PTT Group's OR Company, a Thai energy firm planning to invest approximately 1.6 billion baht in expanding its gas stations and depots within Cambodia this year. OR aims to capture about 15% of the Cambodian fuel market, second only to the local company Tela.
Analysts from Dao Securities (Thailand) highlight that nearly one-third of OR's foreign fuel sales occur in Cambodia, underscoring the strategic importance of this market. Despite the political tensions and the recent announcement by the Cambodian Prime Minister, reports from Thai residents in Phnom Penh indicate that fuel sales at Thai-operated gas stations continue as usual for now.
Another sector facing potential disruption is the energy drink market, particularly companies like Carabao Group. Cambodia accounts for 13% of Carabao's total revenue, making it a significant market segment. Should Cambodia enforce a boycott of Thai products, companies like Carabao could face substantial financial impacts.
Energy supply dynamics between the two countries also play a crucial role in this complex relationship. The Khmer Times reported statements from Cambodia's Minister of Mines and Energy, Mr. Keo Rattanak, clarifying that Cambodia produces over 90% of its electricity domestically. The country's electricity consumption in 2024 was over 19,000 gigawatt-hours, primarily generated from coal, followed by hydropower, solar, oil, and biomass. Electricity imports from neighboring countries constitute only about 8.1% of Cambodia's total consumption, with Thailand supplying approximately 673 gigawatt-hours—an increase from the previous year but still a minor portion overall.
This clarification counters any speculation that Cambodia depends heavily on Thai electricity, reinforcing the government's position of energy self-sufficiency amid the diplomatic strain.
The backdrop to these developments includes political maneuvering and public messaging. The announcement by Gen. Hun Manet appears to be a preemptive measure amid fears that Thailand might retaliate by cutting off electricity and internet services to Cambodia. This tit-for-tat dynamic illustrates the delicate balance and potential for escalation in bilateral relations.
Meanwhile, within Thailand, officials continue to monitor the situation closely. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs' advisory to Thai nationals in Cambodia reflects concerns about safety and the potential for unrest. Emergency contact points have been emphasized, including the Royal Thai Embassy in Phnom Penh, the Consulate General in Siem Reap, and the Consular Affairs Department's call center in Bangkok.
Business communities on both sides express hopes for a swift resolution. The Thai-Cambodian Business Council has called on both governments to find a peaceful and constructive way forward, recognizing the deep economic interdependence that benefits both nations. The stakes are high, with billions of dollars in investments and trade hanging in the balance.
As the diplomatic chess game unfolds, the people living and working in both countries bear the brunt of uncertainties. Thai entrepreneurs in Cambodia, numbering around 100, face an anxious wait to see how policies will shift. The potential for disruptions in fuel supply, energy drinks, and other goods adds economic pressure to an already tense political atmosphere.
Observers note that the current situation is a stark reminder of how geopolitical tensions can quickly spill over into economic and social realms. It also highlights the importance of robust diplomatic channels and crisis management mechanisms to prevent escalation and safeguard the interests of citizens and businesses alike.
For now, the eyes of the region remain fixed on the evolving situation, with hopes that cooler heads will prevail and that the longstanding ties between Thailand and Cambodia can be preserved and strengthened despite recent challenges.
