OTTAWA - A wave of political instability is sweeping through the Liberals as multiple caucuses within the party signal their desire for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to resign before the upcoming federal election. This call for change follows the shocking departure of Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, which has intensified scrutiny on Trudeau's leadership.
Sources within the Quebec Liberal caucus revealed to the media on Tuesday their discussions about invoking resignation, which started during the holiday break. Liberal caucus chair Stephane Lauzon confirmed the urgency of the matter but noted no official position had yet been established. "We are set to meet again on January 27, and only then will we determine our official stance on Trudeau," Lauzon stated. Should they decide to call for the Prime Minister's resignation, they will join their peers from Ontario and Atlantic regions, creating substantial pressure for Trudeau to step down.
Public sentiment skews negatively for Trudeau, with Liberal MP Anthony Housefather remarking, “Canadians have clearly lost confidence in him, and Canadians want him to go.” Recent polling data from Angus Reid indicates the Liberals only command the support of 16% among those decided and leaning voters, underlining their plummeting standings.
Trudeau's precarious holiday season became evident last month when Freeland's resignation triggered fresh calls for his ousting from both inside and outside the party. The potential loss of support from the New Democratic Party (NDP), which had been allied with the minority government since the 2021 election, exacerbates the outlook for the Liberals.
“The NDP are no longer intending to support us,” said Housefather. The implication of this withdrawal could lead to non-confidence votes and possibly prompt the Liberals to reevaluate their course of action. Trudeau, meanwhile, continues to bask on vacation, deferring the growing chorus calling for his departure.
With the parliamentary session set to reconvene soon, MPs are weighing several options. This includes the possibility of proroguing Parliament, allowing the Liberals to reset the legislative agenda if they sense the impending threat of non-confidence votes. Trudeau’s previous experience during similar political crises demonstrates these maneuvers can provide temporary relief from severe political challenges.
The practice of proroguing was famously used by former Prime Minister Stephen Harper to stave off questions surrounding his minority government. Should Trudeau adopt the prorogation strategy, it would effectively bring all outstanding legislation to a halt and shift focus to proposed new policies.
Opposition parties, particularly the Conservative and Bloc Québécois, are ready to challenge the government during the next Parliamentary session. Conservative MP John Williamson has indicated plans to introduce motions for non-confidence. “If our motion passes, it could trigger immediate elections,” he told reporters. With increasing unity among opposition ranks, the Liberals face threats on multiple fronts.
The political environment is not encouraging for Trudeau as former support dwindles, resulting from constituents voicing their dissatisfaction. Consequently, if he is forced to resign, Trudeau would necessitate generating momentum for his successor. Reportedly, there is concern within the party about how to proceed without clearly defined leadership going forward. With the Atlantic caucus also expressing inclinations for leadership change, the pressure on Trudeau may only intensify.
The Liberal Party constitution stipulates the need for timely action should the leader choose to depart. According to party rules, there must be arrangements for leadership contests initiated within 27 days of any such resignation. There is currently no formal mechanism within the party structure enabling the caucus to remove Trudeau against his will, which emphasizes the decision remains solely with him.
Trudeau, stubbornly refusing to step back, risks steering the party back to the very position he once resurrected it from: marginalization and crises of confidence. His tenure has shifted the focus of the party from collective values to individual persona, creating complications when popularity wanes. Trudeau's previous success was built upon aligning the party with his own identity, sidelining long-time members and framing opposition viewpoints barring dissent.
The continuous outcry for change poses questions about the leadership's future, especially with the looming deadline of the October election. Among political analysts, sentiment is building around the notion Trudeau is transforming from the savior to the liability of the party.
Facing declining citizen support and political adversaries uniting to pressurize the government, Trudeau must contemplate the strategic options at his disposal. He may choose to prorogue Parliament to buy time or even trigger new elections by dissolving the government entirely, attempting to maintain control over circumstances.
Regardless of the decisions taken, Trudeau finds himself teetering precariously between remaining the leader and potentially ceding control of the Liberal Party to maintain any semblance of political viability. One thing seems certain: the upcoming weeks will likely be pivotal for many Liberal MPs as they navigate the intricacies of keeping their party intact as they approach the crossroads of their political direction.