California’s snowpack has seen alarming declines, dropping to just 65% of the historical average, following one of the driest Januaries on record. According to the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) second snow survey conducted at Phillips Station near South Lake Tahoe, snow depth measured 22.5 inches with only 8 inches of snow water equivalent. This figure marks just 46% of the average at this location.
The downturn in snowpack levels is startling, especially when considering the promising start to the year when, at the beginning of January, California's snowpack was measured at over 108% of its average, thanks to beneficial winter storms during November and December. Yet, the dry conditions settled over the state throughout January, stifling the growth of the snowpack and alarming water officials who rely on it for much of the state's water supply.
Karla Nemeth, Director of the DWR, expressed concerns over the missed opportunities for snow-building storms, stating, "California missed out on the snow-building storms which has pushed the state down below average for this time of year." She emphasized the importance of precipitation, adding, "For each day it’s not snowing or raining, we are not keeping up with what we need." This sentiment is echoed by many experts monitoring the water situation as the drier spell puts pressure on California’s already fragile water supply resources.
The survey results revealed regional disparities as well. The Central Sierra's snowpack stood at just 58% of normal, with the Southern Sierra dipping to below 50%. Despite consistent monitoring through various electronic stations throughout the Sierra Nevada, the results echo the sentiments of growing concern among officials about the potential impact on summer water allocations.
Nevertheless, optimism swells as two storms are anticipated to sweep through California over the weekend and early next week, possibly replenishing some of the lost snowpack and water resources. Weather scientists predict significant snowfall headed for the northern Sierra, with up to 5 feet of new snow expected at higher elevations. Andy Reising, DWR's snow survey manager, mentioned the importance of these upcoming storms, stating, "These storms should bring us up to normal again, if not above." With so much at stake, the hope is palpable.
Andrew Schwartz, lead scientist at the UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Laboratory, commented on the promising winter storms arriving just as the state was bracing for another dry month. Schwartz recalled the earlier winter, which gave rise to optimistic snowpack levels, adding, "The year began fairly well, but then the tap shut off." The current conditions add urgency to the snowpack's recovery as California relies heavily on it to meet its annual water demands.
Historically, significant fluctuations between early-season snowpack building and dwindling became evident, especially with the drier periods marked previously. Experts pointed to trends observed this decade, with years like 2013 and 2021 showcasing rapid changes. The increasing intensity of California's droughts emphasizes persistent dry weather patterns and their consequences on irrigation and drinking water.
Confidently, state officials anticipate the forthcoming storms will alter this year's narrative from one of despair to potential relief. The DWR states tankers have been fully prepared to navigate through the changing weather patterns as experts anticipate the atmospheric river's influence pushing challenging weather systems across the Sierra Nevada. This could mean much-needed moisture for the parched state, which currently draws nearly one-third of its annual water supply from the Sierra snowpack.
The impact of the storms isn’t only limited to snow levels, but plans are being put forth to manage what they provide to the water system effectively. The role of reservoirs has been highlighted as well, with reports stating Lake Oroville, the largest reservoir managed by the State Water Project, sits at 126% of average for this time of year, bolstering hopes for reliable water management.
Despite the worries posed by January's lack of precipitation, experts caution against overconfidence. The potential dangers of flash flooding are particularly acute with the arrival of atmospheric rivers and the warm rain they bring, which floods streams and rivers. A cautionary statement from the National Weather Service is set to issue advisories for residents through the weekend, as unsafe conditions are already expected over the flood-prone areas across the state.
With the increasing intensity of storms forecasted, officials urge communities to stay vigilant, especially those located near bodies of water, as runoff levels are expected to rise. With preparations well underway, hope fluctuates as do the snowfall totals, dependent on the whims of approaching weather systems. Despite the uncertainty, the grim numbers of January fade away as fresh storms begin to paint the Sierra Nevada white once more.
All eyes now rest on the skies above California, hopeful for the changes the atmospheric river is expected to bring, eleviating the drought concerns to some extent, promoting optimism for the state’s future water allocation and usage. A shift brings renewed energy to water supply forecasts, with state officials and residents alike eagerly awaiting the potential boost from Mother Nature's serendipitous grace.